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Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity

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  • Robert J. Barro
  • Mark Rush

Abstract

This paper discusses ongoing research on the relation of money to economic activity in the post-World War I1 United States. As in previous work, the stress is on the distinction between anticipated and unanticipated movements of money. Part I deals with annual data. Aside from updating and refinements of earlier analysis, the principal new results concern joint, cross-equation estimation and testing of the money growth, unemployment, output and price level equations. The present findings raise some doubts about the specification of the price equation, although the other relations receive further statistical support. Part I1 applies the analysis to quarterly data. Despite the necessity to deal with pronounced serial correlation of residuals in the equations for unemployment, output and the price level, the main results are consistent with those obtained from annual data. Further, the quarterly estimates allow a detailed description of the lagged response of unemployment and output to money shocks. The estimates reveal some lack of robustness in the price equation, which again suggests some misspecification of this relation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0339.

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Date of creation: Apr 1979
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Publication status: published as Barro, Robert J. and Rush, Mark. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity ." Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, edited by Stanley Fischer, pp . 23-74. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0339

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  1. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
  2. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  3. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1, octubre-d.
  4. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
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