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Money and Business Cycles: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation

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Author Info
Charles I. Plosser

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Abstract

This paper focusses on the role of money in economic fluctuations. While money may play an important role in market economies, its role as an important impulse to business cycles remains a highly controversial hypothesis. For years economists have attempted to construct monetary theories of the business cycle with only limited empirical success. Alternatively, recent real theories of the cycle have taken the view that to a first approximation independent variations in the nominal quantity of outside money are neutral. This paper finds that the empirical evidence for a monetary theory of the cycle is weak. Not only do variations in nominal money explain very little of subsequent movements in real activity, but what explanatory power exists arises from variations in endogenous components of money.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3221.

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Date of creation: Apr 1991
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Publication status: published as "Money and Business Cycles: A Real Business Interpretation." From Monetary Policy on the 75th Anniversary of the Federal Reserve System, edited by Michael T. Belongia, pp. 245-274. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1990.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3221

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John B. Taylor, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," NBER Reprints 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  2. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  3. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Manchester, Joyce, 1989. "How Money Affects Real Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 16-32, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Plosser, Charles I, 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 167-171. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1988:i:may/jun:p:3-22:n:v.74no.3 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "On "Real" and "Sticky-Price" Theories of the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 1933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-37, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1988. "Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking," Working Paper 88-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  20. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 2882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1986. "Money as the mechanism of exchange," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 93-115, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Rasche, 1988. "Demand Functions For U.S. Money And Credit Measures," Papers 8718, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  24. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Rush, Mark, 1985. "Unexpected monetary disturbances during the gold standard era," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 309-321, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Cooley, T.F. & Ohanian, L.E., 1989. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices," RCER Working Papers 188, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  29. Barro, Robert J., 1977. "Long-term contracting, sticky prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 305-316, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Laurence M. Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer, 1989. "The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," NBER Reprints 1111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  32. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1971. "The Uses of Money: Money in the Theory of an Exchange Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(5), pages 784-805, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Leonall C. Andersen & Jerry L. Jordon, 1968. "Monetary and fiscal actions: a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 11-23. [Downloadable!]
  36. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "The multiplier approach to the money supply process: a precautionary note," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-64. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango T., 1998. "Some Univariate Time Series Properties Of Output," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003516, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Some Univariate Time Series Properties of Output," Borradores de Economia 100, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "The Own-Price of Money and a New Channel of Monetary Transmission," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 544, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Joseph H. Haslag & Scott E. Hein, 1995. "Measuring the policy effects of changes in reserve requirement ratios," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 2-15. [Downloadable!]
  7. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1990. "Deflating the case for zero inflation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  8. Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "The Source of Fluctuations in Money: Evidence From Trade Credit," NBER Working Papers 3756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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