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Abstract

This paper tests the importance of technology shocks versus financial shocks for explaining, fluctuations in money. The model presented extends the theory of King and Plosser by recognizing that both money and trade credit provide transactions services. The model shows that the comovements between money and trade credit can reveal the nature of the underlying shocks. The empirical results strongly suggest that shocks to the financial system account for most of the fluctuations in money. Thus, the results cast doubt on the hypothesis that nonfinancial technology shocks are the main source of the money-income correlation.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 171-193

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:30:y:1992:i:2:p:171-193

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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   • Robert B. Litterman & Laurence Weiss, 1983. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 1077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
4. Lacker, Jeffrey M., 1990. "Inside money and real output: A reinterpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 65-79.
5. Martin Eichenbaum & Kenneth I. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 91-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "On "Real" and "Sticky-Price" Theories of the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 1933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • McCallum, Bennett T, 1986. "On "Real' and "Sticky-Price' Theories of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 397-414, November.
7. Nadiri, M Ishaq, 1969. "The Determinants of Trade Credit in the U.S. Total Manufacturing Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 408-23, July.
8. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1988. "Tests of the relation between money and output in the real business cycle model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-374.
9. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Andrew Weiss, 1985. "Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macro-Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 1335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1984. "Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 194-99, May.
10. Besley, Scott & Osteryoung, Jerome S, 1985. "Survey of Current Practices in Establishing Trade-Credit Limits," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 70-82, February.
11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
12. Ferris, J Stephen, 1981. "A Transactions Theory of Trade Credit Use," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 243-70, May.
13. Engle, R.F. & Yoo, B.S., 1989. "Cointegrated Economic Time Series: A Survey With New Results," Papers 8-89-13, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
14. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    
    • Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
15. Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Money and business cycles: a real business cycle interpretation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    
    • Charles I. Plosser, 1991. "Money and Business Cycles: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 3221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Money And Business Cycles A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," RCER Working Papers 210, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
16. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods," NBER Working Papers 3427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
17. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
18. Milbourne, Ross D, 1983. "Credit Flows and the Money Supply," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(41), pages 418-30, December.

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