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A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy

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  • Richard G. Anderson
  • Dennis L. Hoffman
  • Robert H. Rasche

Abstract

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies of such time series reinforce the need to specify correctly a model's multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the speciation of a vector error correction forecasting model that is anchored by long-run equilibrium relationships suggested by economic theory. The model includes six variables - the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (MI), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP - and four cointegrating vectors. Model forecasts during the 1990's are compared to those made by the Federal Reserve and by private forecasters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1998-008.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2002, 24(4), pp. 569-98
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1998-008

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Keywords: Forecasting ; Econometric models;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Burger, Kees & Smit, Hidde & Vogelvang, Ben, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Natural Rubber Prices, the Effect of the Asian Crisis," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24958, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. José Fernando Escobar R. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., . "Dinero, Precios, Tasa de Interés y Actividad Económica: Un Modelo del Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 303, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Exchange rate determination of TL/US$: a co-integration approach," MPRA Paper 19659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
  5. Haug, Alfred A. & Karagedikli, Ozer & Ranchhod, Satish, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission mechanisms and currency unions: A vector error correction approach to a Trans-Tasman currency union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 55-74, February.
  6. Chuku, Chuku & Effiong, Ekpeno & Sam, Ndifreke, 2010. "Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 24434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. José Fernando Escobar R. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2005. "Dinero, precios, tasa de interés y actividad económica: un modelo del caso colombiano 1984:I-2003:IV," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-34, enero-mar.
  8. Tom Stark, 1998. "A Bayesian vector error corrections model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
  10. Meniago, Christelle & Mukuddem-Petersen, Janine & Petersen, Mark A. & Mongale, Itumeleng P., 2013. "What causes household debt to increase in South Africa?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 482-492.
  11. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
  12. Wagatha, Matthias, 2007. "Integration, Kointegration und die Langzeitprognose von Kreditausfallzyklen
    [Integration, Cointegration and Long-Horizont Forecasting of Credit-Default-Cycles]
    ," MPRA Paper 8602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466, HAL.
  14. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Testing causal relationships between energy consumption, real income and prices: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 21834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Masahiro Ashiya, 2005. "Twenty-two years of Japanese institutional forecasts," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 79-84, March.

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