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A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy

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Author Info
Richard G. Anderson
Dennis L. Hoffman
Robert H. Rasche

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Abstract

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies of such time series reinforce the need to specify correctly a model's multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the speciation of a vector error correction forecasting model that is anchored by long-run equilibrium relationships suggested by economic theory. The model includes six variables - the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (MI), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP - and four cointegrating vectors. Model forecasts during the 1990's are compared to those made by the Federal Reserve and by private forecasters.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1998-008.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2002, 24(4), pp. 569-98
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1998-008

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Keywords: Forecasting Econometric models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Johansen, S[empty]ren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1986. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Schmidt, P., 1988. "Dickey-Fuller Tests With Drift," Papers 8717, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  10. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56. [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," NBER Technical Working Papers 0217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Forecasting in Cointegration Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 127-46, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H. & Tieslau, Margie A., 1995. "The stability of long-run money demand in five industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 317-339, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1994. "On the welfare cost of inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  20. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1996. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 495-517, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  2. José Fernando Escobar R. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., . "Dinero, Precios, Tasa de Interés y Actividad Económica: Un Modelo del Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 303, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jean-Pierre Nicolas & Marius Homocianu & Fabrice Marchal & Jean-Louis Routhier, 2006. "L'architecture du modèle au sein du projet SIMBAD. Rapport intermédiaire n°4," Post-Print halshs-00101399_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  4. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Masahiro Ashiya, 2005. "Twenty-two years of Japanese institutional forecasts," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 79-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Wagatha, Matthias, 2007. "Integration, Cointegration and Long-Horizont Forecasting of Credit-Default-Cycles," MPRA Paper 8602, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tom Stark, 1998. "A Bayesian vector error corrections model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  8. José Fernando Escobar R. & Carlos Estaban Posada, 2004. "Dinero, Precios, Tasa De Interés Y Actividad Económica: Un Modelo Del Caso Colombiano (1984:I-2003:Iv)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002366, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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