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Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis

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Author Info
Ericsson, Neil R
Hendry, David F
Mizon, Grayham E

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Abstract

This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas critique, equation inversion, and impulse response analysis. A small money-demand model for the United Kingdom illustrates the main analytical points. This article then summarizes the other articles in this issue's special section on exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 16 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 370-87
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:16:y:1998:i:4:p:370-87

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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  58. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Heerde, H.J. van & Dekimpe, M.G. & Putsis, W.P. Jr., 2004. "Marketing Models and the Lucas Critique," Research Paper ERS-2004-080-MKT Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are "deep" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Günter Coenen & Juan-Luis Vega, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 6, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Juuso Vataja, 2001. "On the interdependence of Finnish and Swedish newsprint prices," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Society for Economic Research, vol. 14(2), pages 120-130, Autumn. [Downloadable!]
  5. Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roger Bjørnstad and Ragnar Nymoen, 1999. "Wage and Profitability: Norwegian Manufacturing 1967-1998," Discussion Papers 259, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Money - Inflation Nexus in Indonesia: Evidence from a P-Star Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-054/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nicoletta Batini & Richard Harrison & Stephen P Millard, . "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Bank of England working papers 149, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Stability of the Demand for Real Narrow Money in lndonesia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-051/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market," Working Papers 185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Nina Budina & Wojtek Maliszewski & Georges de Menil & Geomina Turlea, 2002. "Money, Inflation and output in Romania, 1992-2000," DELTA Working Papers 2002-15, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
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