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Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis

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Author Info
Neil R. Ericsson
David F. Hendry
Grayham E. Mizon

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Abstract

This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general; and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas critique, equation inversion, and impulse response analysis. A small money-demand model for the United Kingdom illustrates the main analytical points. This paper then summarizes the other articles in this special section of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics on "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis."

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 616.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Keywords: Econometrics ; Economic policy;

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  7. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
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  59. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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