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Conditional and structural error correction models

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  • Neil R. Ericsson

Abstract

A "structural" error correction model (in Boswijk's sense) is a rep­resentation of a conditional error correction model that satisfies certain restrictions. This paper examines the conditions under which such a struc­tural error correction model exists and when the associated representation is of interest. To clarify the nature of such models, several analytical and empirical examples are considered, which violate those conditions. Structural error correction models are economically appealing, but their limitations imply that some care must be taken when applying them in practice.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 487.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:487

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Keywords: Econometric models ; Vector autoregression;

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References

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1039, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
  5. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
  6. Phillips, Peter C B & Loretan, Mico, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 407-36, May.
  7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  8. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  9. : Katarina Juselius, 1993. "VAR Modelling and Haavelmo's Probability Approach to Macroeconomic Modelling," Discussion Papers 93-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  10. Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  13. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
  14. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  15. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  18. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity and P-T Decomposition in Cointegrated VAR Systems with Common Features," CESifo Working Paper Series 660, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
  3. Christophe Rault, 2004. "Further results on weak-exogeneity in vector error correction models," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 402, Econometric Society.
  4. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Conditional and structural error correction models reply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 173-175, September.
  5. Coenen, Günter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0006, European Central Bank.
  6. Chrystal, Alec & Mizen, Paul, 2002. "Modelling credit in the transmission mechanism of the United Kingdom," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2131-2154, November.
  7. Kyungho Jang, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis with Long Run Restrictions on Error Correction Models," Working Papers 01-04, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Luca Pieroni, 2007. "How Strong is the Relationship between Defence Expenditure and Private Consumption? Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 0705, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  9. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2003. "Structural Error Correction Models: Instrumental Variables Methods and an application to an exchange rate model," RCER Working Papers 502, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis. Part 1 - The Personal Sector," Bank of England working papers 61, Bank of England.
  12. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
  13. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2005. "Estimating the Role of Government Expenditure in Long-run Consumption," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 13/2005, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  14. Pradhan, Basanta K. & Subramanian, A., 2003. "On the stability of demand for money in a developing economy: Some empirical issues," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 335-351, October.
  15. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis Part 2 The Corporate Sector," Bank of England working papers 62, Bank of England.

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