This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Julia Campos
Neil R. Ericsson
David F. Hendry

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper discusses the econometric methodology of general-to-specific modeling, in which the modeler simplifies an initially general model that adequately characterizes the empirical evidence within his or her theoretical framework. Central aspects of this approach include the theory of reduction, dynamic specification, model selection procedures, model selection criteria, model comparison, encompassing, computer automation, and empirical implementation. This paper thus reviews the theory of reduction, summarizes the approach of general-to-specific modeling, and discusses the econometrics of model selection, noting that general-to-specific modeling is the practical embodiment of reduction. This paper then summarizes fifty-seven articles key to the development of general-to-specific modeling.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/838/default.htm
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/838/ifdp838.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 838.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:838

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Econometrics ; Econometric models;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "An encompassing approach to conditional mean tests with applications to testing nonnested hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 331-350. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-49, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Atkinson, A. C., 1981. "Likelihood ratios, posterior odds and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 15-20, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Trivedi, P K, 1975. "Time Series Versus Structural Models: A Case Study of Canadian Manufacturing Inventory Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 587-608, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Denton, Frank T, 1985. "Data Mining as an Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 124-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Richard, J-F, 1980. "Models with Several Regimes and Changes in Exogeneity," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 1-20, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-55, August.
  15. Lu, Maozu & Mizon, Grayham E., 1996. "The Encompassing Principle and Hypothesis Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 845-858, December. [Downloadable!]
  16. Pagan, Adrian, 1987. " Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
  17. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 769-801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Savin, N E, 1980. "The Bonferroni and the Scheffe Multiple Comparison Procedures," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 255-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-97, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Akaike, Hirotugu, 1981. "Likelihood of a model and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-14, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-22, October.
  25. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C32-C61, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Trivedi, P. K., 1973. "Retail inventory investment behaviour," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 61-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  31. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Encompassing and rational expectations: How sequential corroboration can imply refutation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Phillips, P C B, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 344-59, December.
    Other versions:
  35. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Reply to our discussants," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 244-247.
  36. Neil R. Ericsson & Julia Campos & Hong-Anh Tran, 1991. "PC-give and David Hendry's econometric methodology," International Finance Discussion Papers 406, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  37. Hendry, David F, 1995. "Econometrics and Business Cycle Empirics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1622-36, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Department of Economics 01-01, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  39. Ericsson, Neil R, 1983. "Asymptotic Properties of Instrumental Variables Statistics for Testing Non-Nested Hypotheses," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2), pages 287-304, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1988. "Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  41. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Sargan, J D, 1980. "The Consumer Price Equation in the Post War British Economy: An Exercise in Equation Specification Testing," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 113-35, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  43. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  44. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  45. Davidson, James E. H. & Hendry, David F., 1981. "Interpreting econometric evidence : The behaviour of consumers' expenditure in the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 177-192. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  46. Carlo Favero & F. David Hendry, 1992. "Testing the lucas critique: A review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 265-306. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  47. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  48. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  49. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
  50. Yancey, Thomas A. & Judge, George G., 1976. "A Monte Carlo comparison of traditional and Stein-rule estimators under squared error loss," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 285-294, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  51. Anderson, Gordon J & Hendry, David F, 1984. "An Econometric Model of United Kingdom Building Societies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(3), pages 185-210, August.
  52. Ahumada, Hildegart A, 1985. "An Encompassing Test of Two Models of the Balance of Trade for Argentina," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(1), pages 51-70, February.
  53. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  54. Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic "Gets" Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  55. Mizon, Grayham E, 1977. "Inferential Procedures in Nonlinear Models: An Application in a UK Industrial Cross Section Study of Factor Substitution and Returns to Scale," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1221-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  56. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Constructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 663, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  57. James MacKinnon, 1983. "Model specification tests against non-nested alternatives," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 85-110. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  58. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "LSE and the British Approach to Time Series Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 108-28, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  59. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Department of Economics 97-27, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  60. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
    Other versions:
  61. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
  62. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  63. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  64. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Papers 2004-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  65. Hendry, David F., 1976. "The structure of simultaneous equations estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 51-88, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  66. Ericsson, Neil R & Marquez, Jaime, 1993. "Encompassing the Forecasts of U.S. Trade Balance Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 19-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  67. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  68. Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "Information Criteria for Discriminating among Alternative Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1273-91, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  69. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Valentino Dardanoni & Salvatore Modica & Franco Peracchi, 2009. "Regression with Imputed Covariates:a Generalized Missing Indicator Approach," CEIS Research Paper 150, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonas Dovern, 2006. "Predicting GDP Components. Do Leading Indicators Increase Predictability?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Massimiliano Kaucic, 2009. "Predicting EU Energy Industry Excess Returns on EU Market Index via a Constrained Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 173-193, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Luc Bauwens & Genaro Sucarrat, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," Economics Working Papers we081810, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Colander, David C., 2009. "Economists, incentives, judgment, and the European CVAR approach to macroeconometrics," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(9), pages 1-21. [Downloadable!]
  6. Armah, Stephen E., 2008. "Establishing the Presence of a Risk Premium in the Cocoa Futures Market: An Econometric Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6778, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  7. Wolf, C, 2008. "Does Ownership Matter? The Performance and Efficiency of State Oil vs. Private Oil (1987-2006)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0828, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(8), pages 1-33. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dave Colander, 2008. "Economists, Incentives, Judgement and Empirical Work," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0806, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 2700 working paper series are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.