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Reflections on Econometric Methodology

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Abstract

General issues about the methodology of empirical econometric research are discussed. It is argued that the most successful paradigms for applied work are the ones that have a capacity to survive and to evolve into more useful forms as these are needed. Paradigms that embrace progressive modeling principles, such as those espoused by David Hendry, seem most amenable to this criterion. It is also argued that econometric theory has a large role to play in helping us to understand the strengths and the weaknesses of a methodology and to codify what its prescriptions entail. The time series methodology of David Hendry is considered in some detail. It is shown that the Hendry methodology comes remarkable close to achieving an optimal inference procedure for long run structural relationships even though it is conducted on a single equation basis. The findings indicate that the methodology may be improved further to achieve results that are equivalent to optimal estimation.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d08b/d0893.pdf
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 893.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1988
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Publication status: Published in The Economic Record (December 1988), 344-359
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:893

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Keywords: Methodology; econometrics; empirical research; structural relationships;

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References

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  1. Truman F. Bewley, 1988. "Knightian Decision Theory and Econometric Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 868, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. E. Ray Canterbery, 1984. "Introduction," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 7(1), pages 4-6, October.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 801, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 845R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1988.
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  6. HENRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -502, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Hendry, David F, 1985. "Monetary Economic Myth and Econometric Reality," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 72-84, Spring.
  8. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian, 1985. "What Will Take the Con Out of Econometrics?," CEPR Discussion Papers 39, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1983. "Exact small sample theory in the simultaneous equations model," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516 Elsevier.
  10. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Staff Report 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  14. Mizon, Grayham E & Hendry, David F, 1980. "An Empirical Application and Monte Carlo Analysis of Tests of Dynamic Specification," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 21-45, January.
  15. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
  16. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 811R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1987.
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Cited by:
  1. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Bigsten, Arne & Durevall, Dick, 2004. "Kenya’s Development Path and Factor Prices 1964-2000," Working Papers in Economics 142, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 2004. "Robustness of the CUSUM and CUSUM-of-Squares Tests to Serial Correlation, Endogeneity and Lack of Structural Invariance. Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Economics Series 157, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  4. Ashok Parikh, 1994. "Tests of real interest parity in international currency markets," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 167-191, June.
  5. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jürgen, 2005. "Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration," Discussion Papers 2005/22, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  6. Phillips, Peter C B, 1994. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 73-93, January.
  7. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
  8. Aron, Janine & Elbadawi, Ibrahim, 1994. "A typology of foreign exchange auction markets in sub-Saharan Africa : dynamic models for auction exchange rates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1396, The World Bank.
  9. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Lukasz Gatarek & Søren Johansen, 2014. "Optimal Hedging with the Vector Autoregressive Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-022/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Donald, Stephen G., 1995. "Two-step estimation of heteroskedastic sample selection models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 347-380, February.
  12. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Kevin Hoover & Harris Dellas, 2003. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Working Papers 11, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  14. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 375-398, 08.
  16. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2012. "The Caldwellian Methodological Pluralism: Wishful Thoughts and Personal Tendencies," MPRA Paper 44656, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Feb 2013.
  17. Kourogenis, Nikolaos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2008. "Cointegration, variance shifts and the limiting distribution of the OLS estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 103-106, April.

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