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An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz

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David F. Hendry
Neil R. Ericsson

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Abstract

This paper evaluates an empirical model of UK money demand developed by Friedman and Schwartz in Monetary Trends... .Testing reveals mis-specification and hence the potential for an improved model. Using recursive procedures on their annual data, we obtain a better-fitting, constant, dynamic error-correction (cointegration) model. Results on exogeneity and encompassing imply that our money-demand model is interpretable as a model of money but not of prices since its constancy holds only conditional on contemporaneous prices.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 355.

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Date of creation: 1989
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:355

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Keywords: Friedman; Milton ; Schwartz; Anna Jacobson ; Great Britain ; Monetary policy;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1987. "An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures," International Finance Discussion Papers 303, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.-F., 1987. "Recent developments in the theory of encompassing," CORE Discussion Papers 1987022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Goodhart, Charles A E, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: A British Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1540-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hendry, David F. & Neale, Adrian J. & Srba, Frank, 1988. "Econometric analysis of small linear systems using PC-FIML," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 203-226. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kiviet, Jan F., 1985. "Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simultaneous system and their defects in small samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 327-362, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mayer, Thomas, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: A Review Article," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1528-39, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1988. "Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Recursive stability analysis of linear regression relationships: An exploratory methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 31-76, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
  17. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1985. "Assertion without empirical basis : an econometric appraisal of monetary trends in ... the United Kingdom, by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 270, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian, 1985. "What Will Take the Con Out of Econometrics?," CEPR Discussion Papers 39, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  21. James MacKinnon, 1983. "Model specification tests against non-nested alternatives," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 85-110. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  23. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Mouchart, Michel, 1985. "A Linear Theory for Noncausality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 157-75, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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