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The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement

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Author Info
Neil R. Ericsson
John S. Irons

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Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique. A database is constructed of all articles in the Social Science Citation Index that cite Lucas (1976). Those articles are characterized by the nature of the article, the context in which Lucas (1976) is cited, and the evidence presented on the Lucas critique. Virtually no evidence exists that empirically substantiates the Lucas critique. Empirical refutation of the Lucas critique by using tests of super exogeneity is illustrated with U.K. money demand. Numerous other studies similarly refute the Lucas critique for various empirical macro-economic relations.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 506.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:506

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Keywords: Econometric models;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John H. Cochrane, 1989. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," NBER Working Papers 2730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
  5. Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-49, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Smith, Gregor W, 1986. "A Dynamic Baumol-Tobin Model of Money Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(3), pages 465-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  10. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1989. "Encompassing and rational expectations: how sequential corroboration can imply refutation," International Finance Discussion Papers 354, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Neil Ericsson & John Irons, 1995. "Book review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 121-133. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Neftci, Salih & Sargent, Thomas J., 1978. "A little bit of evidence on the natural rate hypothesis from the U.S," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 315-319, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Peek, Joe & Wilcox, James A, 1987. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Reduced Form for Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 273-91, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-37, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Juselius, Katarina, 1993. "VAR Modelling and Haavelmo's Probability Approach to Macroeconomic Modelling," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 595-622.
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  18. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 278-94, December.
  21. Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  22. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
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  24. Akerlof, George A & Milbourne, Ross D, 1980. "Irving Fisher on His Head II: The Consequences of the Timing of Payments for the Demand for Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 145-57, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1988. "Econometric modeling of consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  26. Lubrano, M & Pierse, R G & Richard, J-F, 1986. "Stability of a U.K. Money Demand Equation: A Bayesian Approach to Testing Exogeneity," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 603-24, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. LaHaye, Laura, 1985. "Inflation and Currency Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 537-60, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1989. "An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 355, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  30. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  33. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Steel, Mark F. J. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1991. "Bayesian multivariate exogeneity analysis : An application to a UK money demand equation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 239-274. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Milbourne, Ross, 1983. "Optimal Money Holding under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 685-98, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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