Testing the Lucas critique for the Turkish money demand function
AbstractThis paper aims to test the prevalence of the Lucas critique by use of an applied modelling approach. The Turkish narrow money demand is chosen for investigation purposes and an extensive statistical-based econometric application has been carried out to observe whether the model in question has been exposed to the content of such a critique. The results confirm the theory to explain the behavioral foundations of aggregate monetary economics approaches and reveal that no evidence can be found in favor of the non-rejection of the Lucas critique that leads us to infer that the modelling attempt can be considered by the researcher a feedback model which is able to encompass a whole class of expectation models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 41156.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 27.318(2012): pp. 57-82
Money Demand; Lucas Critique; Turkish Economy;
Other versions of this item:
- Levent KORAP & Metin YILDIRIM, 2012. "Testing the Lucas Critique for the Turkish Money Demand Function," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(318), pages 57-82.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2012-09-22 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-MON-2012-09-22 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zenon Kontolemis G., 2002. "Money Demand in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand (Today)?," IMF Working Papers 02/185, International Monetary Fund.
- Ozge Akinci, 2003. "Modeling the Demand for Currency Issued in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992.
"Testing for parameter instability in linear models,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
- Tom Doan, . "STABTEST: RATS procedure to perform Hansen's stability test for OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00199, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992.
"residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003.
"Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks,"
Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, 04.
- Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1998. "Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks," NBER Working Papers 6397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben-David, D. & Lumsdaine, L.R. & Papell, D.H., 1996. "Unit Roots Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks," Papers 33-96, Tel Aviv.
- Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2007.
"Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects,"
Eastern European Economics,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(2), pages 75-94, April.
- Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2006. "Long-run money demand in the new EU Member States with exchange rate effects," Working Paper Series 0628, European Central Bank.
- Ramachandran, M., 2004. "Do broad money, output, and prices stand for a stable relationship in India?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 983-1001, December.
- Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993.
"Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
- Engle, R. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing Super Exogeneity And Invariance In Regression Models," Economics Series Working Papers 99100, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
- Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hurn, A S & Muscatelli, V A, 1992. "Testing Superexogeneity: The Demand for Broad Money in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 543-56, November.
- Irfan Civcir, 2003. "Money demand, financial liberalization and currency substitution in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(5), pages 514-534, October.
- David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990.
"Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muge Karacal, 2006. "The demand for money in Turkey and currency substitution," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 635-642.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Stanley, T. D., 2000. "An empirical critique of the Lucas critique," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 91-107.
- Sahin, Afsin, 2013. "Estimating Money Demand Function by a Smooth Transition Regression Model: An Evidence for Turkey," MPRA Paper 46851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.