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Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand

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Author Info

  • Neil R. Ericsson
  • Steven B. Kamin

Abstract

This paper assesses the empirical merits of PcGets and Autometrics--two recent algorithms for computer-automated model selection--using them to improve upon Kamin and Ericsson's (1993) model of Argentine broad money demand. The selected model is an economically sensible and statistically satisfactory error correction model, in which cointegration between money, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rate depreciation depends on the inclusion of a "ratchet" variable that captures irreversible effects of inflation. Short-run dynamics differ markedly from the long run. Algorithmically based model selection complements opportunities for the researcher to contribute value added in the empirical analysis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 943.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:943

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Related research

Keywords: Money supply ; Demand for money;

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References

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  1. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Economics Papers 2003-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
  4. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1997. "The demand for broad money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993," International Finance Discussion Papers 596, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2008. "An analysis of the indicator saturation estimator as a robust regression estimator," Economics Series Working Papers 2008-WO3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Kevin D. Hoover & Katarina Juselius & Søren Johansen, 2007. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 07-35, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  7. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Contructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 226-240.
  8. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December.
  9. Helkie, William L. & Howard, David H., 1994. "External adjustment in selected developing countries in the 1990s," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 353-393, August.
  10. Neil Ericsson, 2004. "The ET interview: professor David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 811, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Kevin D Hoover & Selva Demiralp & Stephen J Perez, 2010. "Empirical Identification of the Vector Autoregression: The Causes and Effects of U.S. M2," Working Papers 10-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  13. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2007. "International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 297-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Akaike, Hirotugu, 1981. "Likelihood of a model and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-14, May.
  16. Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Jared Enzler & Lewis Johnson & John Paulus, 1976. "Some Problems of Money Demand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 261-282.
  18. David Hendry, 1995. "On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity," Economics Papers 7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  19. David H. Howard, 1987. "Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stabilization in a developing country," International Finance Discussion Papers 314, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Atkinson, A. C., 1981. "Likelihood ratios, posterior odds and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 15-20, May.
  21. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
  22. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
  23. Ahumada, Hildegart, 1992. "A dynamic model of the demand for currency: Argentina 1977-1988," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 335-361, June.
  24. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
  25. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
  26. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  27. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
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Cited by:
  1. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

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