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Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand

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Author Info
Neil R. Ericsson
Steven B. Kamin

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Abstract

This paper assesses the empirical merits of PcGets and Autometrics--two recent algorithms for computer-automated model selection--using them to improve upon Kamin and Ericsson's (1993) model of Argentine broad money demand. The selected model is an economically sensible and statistically satisfactory error correction model, in which cointegration between money, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rate depreciation depends on the inclusion of a "ratchet" variable that captures irreversible effects of inflation. Short-run dynamics differ markedly from the long run. Algorithmically based model selection complements opportunities for the researcher to contribute value added in the empirical analysis.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 943.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:943

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Related research
Keywords: Money supply ; Demand for money;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. David Hendry, 1995. "On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity," Economics Papers 7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
  5. Helkie, William L. & Howard, David H., 1994. "External adjustment in selected developing countries in the 1990s," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 353-393, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Prestwich, Kevin M, 1998. " The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 100(1), pages 289-324, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Atkinson, A. C., 1981. "Likelihood ratios, posterior odds and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 15-20, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jared Enzler & Lewis Johnson & John Paulus, 1976. "Some Problems of Money Demand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1976-1), pages 261-282. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ahumada, Hildegart, 1992. "A dynamic model of the demand for currency: Argentina 1977-1988," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 335-361, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Akaike, Hirotugu, 1981. "Likelihood of a model and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-14, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2008. "An analysis of the indicator saturation estimator as a robust regression estimator," Economics Papers 2008-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  15. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C32-C61, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. David Hendry & Søren Johansen & Carlos Santos, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-339, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. David H. Howard, 1987. "Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stabilization in a developing country," International Finance Discussion Papers 314, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Kevin D. Hoover & Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 251-55, May. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Constructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 663, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  22. Neil Ericsson, 2004. "The ET interview: professor David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 811, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  23. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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