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The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling

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Author Info
David Hendry () (Dept of Economics and Nuffield College, Oxford University)
Hans-Martin Krolzig () (Department of Economics, and Nuffield College, Oxford University)

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Abstract

We examine the properties of automatic model selection, as embodied in PcGets, and evaluate its performance across different (unknown) states of nature. After describing the basic algorithm and some recent changes, we discuss the consistency of its selection procedures, then examine the extent to which model selection is non-distortionary at relevant sample sizes. The problems posed in judging performance on collinear data are noted. The conclusion notes how PcGets can handle more variables than observations, and hence how it can tackle non-linear models.

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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2003-W14.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0314

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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  2. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-55, August.
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    Other versions:
  4. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "Discussion of 'Data mining reconsidered'," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 192-201.
  5. Editors, 2003. "Editor's Introduction," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(2), pages 315-318, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Scheuren F., 2003. "Introduction," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 57, pages 189-189, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Omtzigt Pieter, 2002. "Automatic identification and restriction of the cointegration space," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0213, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Editors, 2003. "Editor's Introduction," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(4), pages 645-648, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "General--to--Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 164, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  19. R. Kanbur & A.J. Venables, 2003. "Editors' Introduction:," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 473-475, December.
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  22. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. J. David Baldwin & Ronald L. Oaxaca, 2003. "Editors' Introduction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 7-7, May. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2007. "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07020, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Sub-sample Model Selection Procedures in Gets Modelling," Economics Papers 2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luc Bauwens & Genaro Sucarrat, 2008. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," Economics Working Papers we081810, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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  5. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Papers 2004-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eduardo Acosta-González & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, 2007. "Model selection via genetic algorithms illustrated with cross-country growth data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 313-337, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions," Economics Papers 2003-W15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Yongfu Huang, 2005. "What determines financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/580, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ciccone, Antonio & Jarocinski, Marek, 2007. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Peter N. Smith & Mike Wickens, 2006. " The New Consensus in Monetary Policy: Is the NKM fit for the purpose of inflation targeting?," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0610, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Søren Johansen & David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," CREATES Research Papers 2007-36, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Majocchi Antonio & Pavione Enrica, 2002. "International franchising in Italy: trends and perspectives," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0215, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  14. SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Sarah M. Lein-Rupprecht & Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Carolin Nerlich, 2007. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Working Paper Series 827, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Mehrotra , Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2008. "Forecasting Inflation in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  17. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  19. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Alan Martina, 2007. "A Class of Poverty Traps: A Theory and Empirical Tests," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2007-482, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  21. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  22. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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