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The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling

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Author Info
David Hendry () (Dept of Economics and Nuffield College, Oxford University)
Hans-Martin Krolzig () (Department of Economics, and Nuffield College, Oxford University)

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Abstract

We examine the properties of automatic model selection, as embodied in PcGets, and evaluate its performance across different (unknown) states of nature. After describing the basic algorithm and some recent changes, we discuss the consistency of its selection procedures, then examine the extent to which model selection is non-distortionary at relevant sample sizes. The problems posed in judging performance on collinear data are noted. The conclusion notes how PcGets can handle more variables than observations, and hence how it can tackle non-linear models.

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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2003-W14.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0314

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  1. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Savin, N.E., 1984. "Multiple hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 827-879 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-55, August.
  4. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
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  5. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "Discussion of 'Data mining reconsidered'," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 192-201.
  6. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hoover, Kevin, 2000. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-Country Growth Regression," Working Papers 01-1, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Scheuren F., 2003. "Introduction," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 57, pages 189-189, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Omtzigt Pieter, 2002. "Automatic identification and restriction of the cointegration space," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0213, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  12. H. E. Frech III, 2003. "Introduction," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 133-133, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "General--to--Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 164, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Scheuren F., 2003. "Introduction," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 57, pages 253-253, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. J. Rajendran Pandian & Paul L. Robertson, 2003. "Introduction," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 241-243. [Downloadable!]
  19. P. Dorian Owen, 2003. "General-to-Specific Modelling Using PcGets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 609-628, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. J. David Baldwin & Ronald L. Oaxaca, 2003. "Editors' Introduction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 7-7, May. [Downloadable!]
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