Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jennifer Castle
  • David Hendry

Abstract

As it is almost 50 years since Phillips (1958), we analyze an historical series on UK wages and their determinants.� Huge changes have occurred over this long run, so congruence is hard to establish: real wages have risen more than 6 fold, and nominal 500 times; laws, technology, wealth distribution, and social structure are unrecognizably different from 1860.� We investigate: wage rates and weekly earnings; real versus nominal wages; breaks over 1860-2004; non-linearities, including Phillips' non-linear response to unemployment; 'trade union power' and unemployment benefits; and measures of excess demand, where workers react more to inflation when it rises.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/paper409.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 409.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:409

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Email:
Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hendry, David F. & Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Co-Breaking: Recent Advances and a Synopsis of the Literature," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 33-51, January.
  2. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
  3. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1997. "The demand for broad money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993," International Finance Discussion Papers 596, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Oswald, A. J., 1995. "Efficient contracts are on the labour demand curve: Theory and facts," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 102-102, March.
  6. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
  7. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  8. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1997. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," Scholarly Articles 4553027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December.
  10. Nickell, Stephen, 1990. "Inflation and the UK Labour Market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 26-35, Winter.
  11. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1998. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 69-96, February.
  12. Luca Nunziata, 2005. "Institutions and Wage Determination: a Multi-country Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 435-466, 08.
  13. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society.
  15. Mills, T.C. & Crafts, N.F.R., 1990. "Trends In Real Wages In Britain 1750-1913 ," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 371, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
  17. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1997. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 921-39, December.
  18. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors' Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
  19. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
  20. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  21. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, September.
  22. Charles Feinstein, 1990. "New estimates of average earnings in the United Kingdom, 1880-19131," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 43(4), pages 595-632, November.
  23. McDonald, Ian M & Solow, Robert M, 1981. "Wage Bargaining and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 896-908, December.
  24. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  25. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1989. "An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 355, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Nickell, Stephen J, 1987. "Why Is Wage Inflation in Britain So High?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(1), pages 103-28, February.
  27. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Economics Papers 2003-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  28. Godley, Wynne A H & Nordhaus, William D, 1972. "Pricing in the Trade Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(327), pages 853-82, September.
  29. Shadman-Mehta, Fatemeh, 1996. "Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1996015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  30. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  31. Rowlatt, Penelope A, 1988. "Analysis of the Recent Path of UK Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 335-60, November.
  32. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
  33. Hendry, David F., 2003. "J. Denis Sargan And The Origins Of Lse Econometric Methodology," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 457-480, June.
  34. Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2001. "Nonlinear error correction models," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2001-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
  35. Crafts, Nick, 1988. "The Assessment: British Economic Growth over the Long Run," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages i-xxi, Spring.
  36. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
  37. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
  38. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
  39. Surrey, M J C, 1989. "Money, Commodity Prices and Inflation: Some Simple Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 219-38, August.
  40. Sargan, J D, 1980. "A Model of Wage-Price Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 97-112, January.
  41. Desai, Meghnad J, 1975. "The Phillips Curve: A Revisionist Interpretation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(165), pages 1-19, February.
  42. repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  44. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of outliers," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 249-271, 06.
  45. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 1998. "Unemployment and the open economy wage-price spiral," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 450-467, October.
  46. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867-1975," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-2, July.
  47. Soskice, David, 1990. "Wage Determination: The Changing Role of Institutions in Advanced Industrialized Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 36-61, Winter.
  48. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  49. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  50. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
  51. Salkever, David S., 1976. "The use of dummy variables to compute predictions, prediction errors, and confidence intervals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 393-397, November.
  52. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2010. "The Futile Quest for a Grand Explanation of Long-Run Government Expenditure," Working Papers in Economics 428, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 08 Feb 2011.
  2. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  3. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
  4. Nicholas Barr & Alison Johnston, 2010. "Interest subsidies on student loans: a better class of drain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28287, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Robert G. King, 2008. "The Phillips curve and U.S. macroeconomic policy : snapshots, 1958-1996," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 311-359.
  7. Nicholas Barr & Alison Johnston, 2010. "Interest Subsidies on Student Loans: A Better Class of Drain," CEE Discussion Papers 0114, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Caroline Wise).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.