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General to Specific Modelling of Exchange Rate Volatility : a Forecast Evaluation

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  • Luc, BAUWENS

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)

  • Genaro, SUCARRAT

Abstract

The general-to-specific (GETS) approach to modelling is widely employed in the modelling of economic series, but less so in financial volatility modelling due to computational complexity when many explanatory variables are involved. This study proposes a simple way of avoiding this problem and undertakes an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the methodology applied to the modelling of weekly exchange rate volatility. Our findings suggest that GETS specifications are especially valuable in conditional forecasting, since the specification that employs actual values on the uncertain information performs particularly well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) with number 2006013.

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Length: 39
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2006013

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Keywords: Exchange Rate Volatility; General to Specific; Forecasting;

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Cited by:
  1. Genaro Sucarrat & Alvaro Escribano, 2010. "The power log-GARCH model," Economics Working Papers we1013, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  2. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "From the General to the Specific," Discussion Papers 11-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  3. Tennant, David, 2011. "Why do people risk exposure to Ponzi schemes? Econometric evidence from Jamaica," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 328-346, July.
  4. Alvaro Escribano & Genaro Sucarrat, 2011. "Automated model selection in finance: General-to-speci c modelling of the mean and volatility speci cations," Working Papers 2011-09, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  5. Sucarrat, Genaro & Grønneberg, Steffen & Escribano, Alvaro, 2013. "Estimation and Inference in Univariate and Multivariate Log-GARCH-X Models When the Conditional Density is Unknown," MPRA Paper 49344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 355-367, May.
  7. Genaro Sucarrat & Alvaro Escribano, 2009. "Automated financial multi-path GETS modelling," Economics Working Papers we093620, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  8. Chortareas, Georgios & Jiang, Ying & Nankervis, John. C., 2011. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high-frequency data: Is the euro different?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1089-1107, October.

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