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An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation

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Author Info
Metin, Kivilcim
Abstract

The inflation process in Turkey is investigated utilizing the multivariate cointegration model that is based on the joint analysis of long-run and short-run behavior. Excess demand in each sector--monetary, government, international and labor--as measured by the deviation from the long-run equilibrium is allowed to potentially effect the inflation rate. Excess demand in the government sector is found to be the main determinant of the Turkish inflation rate. Thus, a rate policy implication is that inflation could be reduced rapidly by eliminating the fiscal deficit. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 57 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 513-31
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:57:y:1995:i:4:p:513-31

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049

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  1. Sel Dibooglu & Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2003. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Macroeconomics 0306001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," Macroeconomics 0107002, EconWPA, revised 10 Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
  3. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 2001. "Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  5. Saleh, Ali Salman, 2003. "The Budget Deficit and Economic Performance: A Survey," Economics Working Papers wp03-12, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2004. "A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation," Macroeconomics 0404003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gerardo Esquivel & Raúl Razo, 2003. "Fuentes de la inflación en México, 1989-2000: Un análisis multicausal de corrección de errores," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 18(2), pages 181-226. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ümit Özlale & Kivilcim Metin Ozcan, 2005. "Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2005/2, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
  9. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ardic, Oya Pinar, 2006. "Output, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Crises in Turkey," MPRA Paper 6099, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Feridun, M. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 55-84. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mathew Kofi Ocran, 2007. "A Modelling of Ghana's Inflation Experience: 1960–2003," Research Papers RP_169 Key words: Ghana, , African Economic Research Consortium. [Downloadable!]
  13. Alfonso Mendoza V., 2003. "The Inflation-Output Volatility Tradeoff and Exchange Rate Shocks in Mexico and Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 27-51. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Renee Fry, 2002. "International SVAR Factor Modelling," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 109, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  16. Yuan Xiao & Emilio Sacerdoti, 2001. "Inflation Dynamics in Madagascar, 1971-2000," IMF Working Papers 01/168, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2004. "Deficit Financing in LDCs: Evidence From South Asia," Economics Working Papers wp04-18, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  19. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2002. "Velocity Effect On Inflationary Growth of Turkey: Evidence From Co-integration Analysis and Granger's Causality Test," MPRA Paper 259, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  20. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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