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The Feldstein-Horioka Fact

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009

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  • Domenico Giannone
  • Michele Lenza

Abstract

This Paper shows that general equilibrium effects can partly rationalize the high correlation between saving and investment observed in OECD countries. We introduce a novel factor augmented panel regression to control for general equilibrium effects where global shocks are allowed to affect each country with specific magnitude and lag structure. We show that the homogeneity restriction on the propagation of global shocks across countries is rejected by the data and biases the saving-retention coefficient estimated in previous studies. By relaxing this assumption, the saving-retention coefficient remains high in the 70s but decreases considerably over time becoming very small in the last two decades. This finding is explained by the increased capital mobility in OECD countries.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Lucrezia Reichlin & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number reic09-1, October.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 11909.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11909

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    References

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1993. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Acocount," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 31, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
    3. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
    6. Gregory, Allan W. & Head, Allen C., 1999. "Common and country-specific fluctuations in productivity, investment, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 423-451, December.
    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
    9. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
    10. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2000. "Consumption and aggregate constraints : evidence from U.S. states and Canadian provinces," Research Working Paper RWP 00-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    12. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "World Interest Rates and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
    14. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
    15. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    16. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1998. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: A Review," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 169-88, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Tamazian, Artur & Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Systems GMM estimates of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle for the OECD countries and tests for structural breaks," MPRA Paper 15312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Working Paper Series 595, European Central Bank.
    3. Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2011. "A Time‐series Approach to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data from the OECD Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 473-485, 03.
    4. John C. Bluedorn, 2005. "Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks," Economics Papers 2005-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    5. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2005. "Shock identification of macroeconomic forecasts based on daily panels," Staff Reports 206, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Andrea R. Lamorgese & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2006. "Intercity interactions: evidence from the US," 2006 Meeting Papers 667, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Anastasios Mastroyiannis, 2007. "Current Account Dynamics and the Feldstein and Horioka Puzzle: the Case of Greece," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 91-99, June.
    8. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," Working Papers 2004-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    9. Iñaki Erauskin-Iurrita, 2009. "The current account and the new rule in a not-so-small open economy," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 33(3), pages 529-557, September.

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