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Common and Country-specific Fluctuations in Productivity, Investment, and the Current Account

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  • Allan W. Gregory
  • Allen C. Head

Abstract

Dynamic factor analysis and Kalman filtering are used to construct a measure of common economic activity for the G7 countries. Common movements are important in productivity, but account for a substantially smaller share of movements in investment, and virtually none of the variation in the current accounts. For all seven countries, country-specific investment fluctuations have a significant negative impact on the current account, while country-specific productivity movements have little effect. A multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model is analyzed which is consistent with our qualitative findings. The model overstates, however, the quantitative importance of investment fluctuations for movements in the current account.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_931.pdf
File Function: First version 1996
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 931.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:931

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Keywords: kalman filter; current account; Solow residual; investment; G7;

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References

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  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1993. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Acocount," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 31, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  3. Tesar, L.L., 1988. "Savings, Investment And International Capital Flows," RCER Working Papers 154, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  8. Christian Zimmermann, 1996. "International Real Business Cycles among Heterogeneous Countries," Macroeconomics 9607002, EconWPA.
  9. Yi, Kei-Mu, 1993. "Can government purchases explain the recent U.S. net export deficits?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 201-225, November.
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  11. Costello, Donna M, 1993. "A Cross-Country, Cross-Industry Comparison of Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 207-22, April.
  12. Christian Zimmermann, 1994. "Technology Innovations and the Volatility of Output: An International Perspective," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 34, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  14. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Measuring World Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
  16. Elliott, Graham & Fatas, Antonio, 1996. "International business cycles and the dynamics of the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 361-387, February.
  17. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  18. Devereux, Michael B. & Head, Allen C. & Lapham, Beverly J., 1996. "Aggregate fluctuations with increasing returns to specialization and scale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 627-656, April.
  19. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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