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Semi-Parametric Predictions of the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account

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Author Info
M-A. Letendre

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Abstract

This paper uses dunamic programming by GMM (DM by GMM) to solve a dynamic model of a small-open economy calibrated to Canada. The predicted paths for consumption, output, investment and trade balance (over output) are highly correlated with thier historical counterparts. Moreover, the variance of the predicted trade balance- output ratio matches the variance observed in the data. The latter result contrasts with earier research on the intertemporal approach to the current account using linear-quadratic modeals that found that the sample paths for the current account predicted by the theory are less volatile than the historical paths in Canadian data. It is shown that a special case of the model with a constant world interest rate does not match the historical path of the trade balance as well.

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File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/2002-01.pdf
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Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2002-01.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2002-01

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques

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  1. Daniel Kanda, 2006. "Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 06/276, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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