What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks
AbstractThe joint dynamics of US net output, consumption, and (valuation-adjusted) foreign assets and liabilities, characterized empirically following Lettau and Ludvigson , is shown to be strikingly consistent with current account theory. While US consumption is virtually insulated from transitory shocks, these contribute considerably to the variation in net output and, even more so, in gross foreign positions, arguably smoothing temporary variations in returns. A single permanent shock – naturally interpreted as a productivity shock – raises consumption swiftly while causing net output to adjust only gradually. This leads to persistent, procyclical external deficits but, interestingly, moves gross assets and liabilities in the same direction.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7134.
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou, 2009. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks," Discussion Paper Series 2009_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2009.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-02-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2009-02-28 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CBA-2009-02-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-02-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2009-02-28 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013.
"Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
- P. Jacob & G. Peersman, 2008. "Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/544, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Punnoose Jacob & Gert Peersman, 2012. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Working Paper Research 226, National Bank of Belgium.
- Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.