Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses of German monetary systems
AbstractIt is argued that standard impulse response analysis based on vector autoregressive models has a number of shortcomings. Although the impulse responses are estimated quantities, measures for sampling variability such as confidence intervals are often not provided. If confidence intervals are given they are often based on bootstrap methods with poor theoretical properties. These problems are illustrated using two German monetary systems. Proposals are made for improving current practice. Special emphasis is placed on systems with cointegrated variables. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 1999,29.
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
monetary policy; bootstrap; impulse response; money demand system;
Other versions of this item:
- Benkwitz, Alexander & L tkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, J rgen, 2001. "Comparison Of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses Of German Monetary Systems," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 81-100, February.
- Benkwitz, Alexander & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1999. "Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses of German Monetary Systems," CEPR Discussion Papers 2208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1990. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Vector Autoregressive Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 116-25, February.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
- JØrgen Wolters & Helmut LØtkepohl, 1998. "A money demand system for German M3," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 371-386.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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