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Problems related to bootstrapping impulse responses of autoregressive processes

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  • Benkwitz, Alexander
  • Lütkepohl, Helmut
  • Neumann, Michael H.

Abstract

Bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses computed from autoregressive processes are considered. A detailed analysis of the methods in current use shows that they are not very reliable in some cases. In particular, there are theoretical reasons for them to have actual coverage probabilities which deviate considerably from the nominal level in some situations of practical importance. For a simple case alternative bootstrap methods are proposed which provide correct results asymptotically.

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  • Benkwitz, Alexander & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Neumann, Michael H., 1997. "Problems related to bootstrapping impulse responses of autoregressive processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,85, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199785
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Lütkepohl, Helmut & POSKITT, D.S., 1996. "Testing for Causation Using Infinite Order Vector Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 61-87, March.
    3. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1990. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Vector Autoregressive Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 116-125, February.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    5. Heimann, Günter & Kreiss, Jens-Peter, 1996. "Bootstrapping general first order autoregression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-98, September.
    6. R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), 1986. "Handbook of Econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressions," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,4, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1997. "A money demand system for M3 in the unified Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,92, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    3. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressive analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,31, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    4. Minford, Patrick & Webb, Bruce, 2005. "Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML--some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 187-205, January.

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