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Exact confidence intervals for impulse responses in a Gaussian vector autoregression Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Jonathan H. Wright
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Many techniques have been proposed for forming confidence intervals for the impulse responses in a vector autoregression. However, numerous Monte-Carlo simulations have shown that all of these methods often have coverage well below the nominal level. This paper proposes a new approach to constructing confidence intervals for impulse responses in a vector autoregression, making the additional assumption of Gaussianity. These confidence intervals are conservative in all sample sizes; by construction they have coverage that must be greater than or equal to the nominal level.
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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number
682.
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Date of creation: 2000Date of revision:
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Keywords: Vector autoregression ; Macroeconomics ; This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Runkle, David E, 1987.
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[Downloadable!]
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Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994.
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Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Lutz Kilian & Silvia Goncalves, 2002.
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Working Paper Series
196, European Central Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
GONÇALVES, Silvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003.
"Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form ,"
Cahiers de recherche
2003-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
[Downloadable!] GONÇALVES, Sílvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003.
"Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form ,"
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01-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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2003s-17, CIRANO.
[Downloadable!] Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004.
"Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Ossama Mikhail & Curtis J. Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2003.
"Can Sectoral Shifts Generate Persistent Unemployment in Real Business Cycle Models? ,"
Macroeconomics
0311004, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
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