Confidence Intervals for Univariate Impulse Responses with a Near Unit Root

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Confidence Intervals for Univariate Impulse Responses with a Near Unit Root

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Wright, Jonathan H

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Jonathan H. Wright

Abstract

This article proposes a method for constructing confidence intervals for the impulse response function of a univariate time series with a near unit root. These confidence intervals control coverage, whereas the existing techniques can all have coverage far below the nominal level. I apply the proposed method to several measures of U.S. aggregate output.

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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 368-73
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:18:y:2000:i:3:p:368-73

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James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Elena Pesavento & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "Impulse Responses Confidence Intervals for Persistent Data: What Have We Learned?," Emory Economics 0603, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Impulse Response Confidence Intervals for Persistent Data: What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 06-03, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Elena Pesavento, Barbara Rossi, 2006. "Impulse Response Confidence Intervals for Persistent Data: What Have We Learned?," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/19, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
- Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "Exact confidence intervals for impulse responses in a Gaussian vector autoregression," International Finance Discussion Papers 682, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Lutz Kilian & Silvia Goncalves, 2002. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Working Paper Series 196, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- GONÇALVES, Silvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 2003-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
- GONÇALVES, Sílvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 01-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
- Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
- Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-17, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
- Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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