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Identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using high frequency data

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Author Info
Jon Faust
John H. Rogers
Eric Swanson
Jonathan H. Wright

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of Fed Funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on financial variables, such as the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. We show how this information can be used to achieve identification without having to make the usual strong assumption of a recursive ordering.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 739.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:739

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Foreign exchange rates;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  5. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
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  8. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
  12. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & and Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  18. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  19. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  20. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1995. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of Federal Reserve policy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  22. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  26. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  28. Favero, Carlo A. & Mosca, Federico, 2001. "Uncertainty on monetary policy and the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 369-375, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2005. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-02, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. Karine Gente & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2004. "Does the World Real Interest Rate Affect the Real Exchange Rate? The South East Asian Experience," Studies in Economics 0405, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2007. "Do Markets Care Who Chairs the Central Bank?," NBER Working Papers 13101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Hansen & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paul de Grauwe & Roberto Dieci & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Equilibria in the Foreign Exchange Market. A Behavioural Finance Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1007, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christian Bauer & Paul De Grauwe & Stefan Reitz, 2007. "Exchange Rates Dynamics in a Target Zone – A Heterogeneous Expectations Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Are Real Interest Differentials Caused by Frictions in Goods or Assets Markets, Real or Nominal Shocks?," Studies in Economics 0407, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-18, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Aug 2003. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ricardo Llaudes, 2007. "Monetary policy shocks in a two-sector open economy - an empirical study," Working Paper Series 799, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Federal Reserve transparency and financial market forecasts of short-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. John Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2006. "The Open Economy Consequences of U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Papers 2006-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, . "Monetary Policy News and Exchange Rate Responses: Do Only Surprises Matter?," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-14, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
  15. Fischer, Andreas M & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2008. "Does FOMC News Increase Global FX Trading?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Michael Melvin & Christian Saborowski & Michael Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2009. "Bank of England Interest Rate Announcements and the Foreign Exchange Market," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  17. John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification," Economics Papers 2005-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  18. Marianna Grimaldi & Paul De Grauwe, 2003. "Bubbling and Crashing Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  19. Nikola Gradojevic & Christopher J. Neely, 2008. "The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate," Working Papers 2008-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  20. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2004. "Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors," Working Paper Series 163, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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