The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money
AbstractThis paper presents a new way to assess robustness of claims from identified VAR work. All possible identifications are checked for the one that is worst for the claim, subject to the restriction that the VAR produce reasonable impulse responses to shocks. The statistic on which the claim is based need not be identified; thus, one can assess claims in large models using minimal restrictions. The technique reveals only weak support for the claim that monetary policy shocks contribute a small portion of the forecast error variance of postwar U.S. output in standard 6-variable and 13-variable models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 610.
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
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- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996.
"Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
- Rudebusch, G.D., 1996. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," Papers 269, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995.
"Measuring Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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