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Overshooting and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a reappraisal

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Author Info
Hairault, Jean-Olivier
Patureau, Lise
Sopraseuth, Thepthida

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Abstract

Transition to floating exchange rate regimes has led to sharp increases in nominal and real exchange rate volatilities with no corresponding changes in the distribution of fundamental macroeconomic variables. In the spirit of Dornbusch [1976], we assess whether nominal exchange rate overshooting is responsible for this phenomenon. As long as uncovered interest rate parity holds, nominal exchange rate overshooting is linked to a persistent fall in the spread between domestic and foreign nominal interest rates. We thus develop a limited participation model in an international setting. Introducting adjustment costs on money holdings in the limited participation framework substantially raises the magnitude of the overshooting dynamics. Overshooting indeed plays a key role in understanding the extreme nominal exchange rate volatility.

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Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) with number 0305.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:0305

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Don E. Schlagenhauf & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1992. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 57, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1991. "Modeling the liquidity effect of a money shock," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-34. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hairault, J.O. & Portier, F., 1992. "Monnaie et inflation dans un modele de cycles reels," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.31, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
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  11. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 48, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Apr 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao A. Zha, 1998. "Does monetary policy generate recessions?," Working Paper 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Dow, James Jr., 1995. "The demand and liquidity effects of monetary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 91-115, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics : does theory meet the data ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Lise Patureau, 2002. "Pricing-to-market and limited participation : a joint explanation to the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 299, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in the Open Economy: Effects on Welfare and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 3279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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