Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy
Abstract
This paper analyses the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in a small open economy like Norway through structural VARs, paying particular attention to the interdependence between the monetary policy stance and exchange rate movements in the inflation-targeting period. Previous studies of the effects of monetary policy in open economies have typically found small or puzzling effects on the exchange rate; puzzles that may arise due to the recursive restrictions imposed on the contemporaneous interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate. By instead imposing a long-run neutrality restriction on the real exchange rate, thereby allowing the interest rate and the exchange rate to react simultaneously to any news, the interdependence increases considerably. In particular, following a contractionary monetary policy shock, the real exchange rate appreciates immediately and thereafter depreciates back to baseline. Furthermore, output and consumer price inflation fall gradually as expected; thereby also ruling out any price puzzle that has commonly been found in the literature. Results are compared and found to be consistent with among other the findings from an “event study” that focuses on immediate responses in asset prices following a surprise monetary policy decision.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 31/2005.Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 15 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2005_031
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
Email:
Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords: VAR; monetary policy; open economy; identification; event study.;Other versions of this item:
- "Hilde C." "Bjørnland", 2008. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(1), pages 197-221, 03.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy," Working Paper 2005/16, Norges Bank.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-02-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-02-12 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2006-02-12 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2006-02-12 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2006-02-12 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-02-12 (Monetary Economics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004.
"What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?,"
NBER Working Papers
10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06.
- Ben Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Staff Reports 174, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2005.
"The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2005-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2006. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
NBER Working Papers
2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994.
"Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J., 1993. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," Discussion Papers 1993_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993. "Sources of real exchage rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Economics Working Papers 66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994.
- Faust, Jon, 1998.
"The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Faust 1998 paper on semi-structural VAR," Statistical Software Components RTZ00178, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996.
"Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets,"
Papers
615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999.
"Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
- Benoit Mojon & Gert Peersman, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the Euro area," Working Paper Series 092, European Central Bank.
- Favero, Carlo A & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2001.
"Large Datasets, Small Models and Monetary Policy in Europe,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3098, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Large Datasets, Small Models and Monetary Policy in Europe," Working Papers 208, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005.
"Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle,"
Memorandum
26/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 45, Society for Computational Economics.
- Frank Smets & Gert Peersman, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis (MTN conference paper)," Working Paper Series 091, European Central Bank.
- Bagliano, Fabio-Cesare & Favero, Carlo A, 1997.
"Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: An Evaluation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Carlo A. Favero, . "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: an Evaluation," Working Papers 132, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004.
"The impact of monetary policy on asset prices,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004.
"Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
- Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & and Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001.
"Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy,"
Proceedings,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999.
"Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148
Elsevier.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Q. Farooq Akram & Gunnar Bärdsen & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006.
"Monetary policy and asset prices: to respond or not?,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 279-292.
- Gunnar Bårdsen & Q. Farooq Akram & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: To respond or not?," Working Paper Series 5405, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
- Q. Farook Akram & Gunnar Bårdsen & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: To respond or not?," Working Paper 2005/9, Norges Bank.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Error Bands for Impulse Responses,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Sims and Zha(1999) "Error Bands for Impulse Responses"," Statistical Software Components RTZ00145, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Bjørnland , Hilde & Leitemo, Kai, 2005.
"Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market,"
Research Discussion Papers
17/2005, Bank of Finland.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo, 2008. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Working Paper 2008/04, Norges Bank.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Memorandum 12/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000.
"Open-economy inflation targeting,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996.
"Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
- Rudebusch, G.D., 1996. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," Papers 269, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Håvard Hungnes & Hilde C. Bj�rnland, 2006.
"The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 209-221.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2003. "The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate," Discussion Papers 340, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Giordani, Paolo, 2001.
"An Alternative Explanation of the Price Puzzle,"
Working Paper Series
125, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
- Giordani, Paolo, 2000. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 414, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2000.
- David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995.
"Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates,"
Working Paper
95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
- Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 861-886, October.
- Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
- Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Gunji, Hiroshi & Miura, Kazuki & Yuan, Yuan, 2009. "Bank competition and monetary policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 105-115, January.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009.
"Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all,"
Working Paper
2009/09, Norges Bank.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2010.
"The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 218-229, December.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Working Paper 2009/06, Norges Bank.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2006.
"Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
45, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005. "Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle," Memorandum 26/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2005_031For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rhiana Bergh-Seeley).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

