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The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Håvard Hungnes (University of Oslo, Norway)
Hilde C. Bjørnland (University of Oslo, Norway)
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This study compares the forecasting performance of a structural exchange rate model that combines the purchasing power parity condition with the interest rate differential in the long run, with some alternative exchange rate models. The analysis is applied to the Norwegian exchange rate. The long-run equilibrium relationship is embedded in a parsimonious representation for the exchange rate. The structural exchange rate representation is stable over the sample and outperforms a random walk in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise at one to four horizons. Ignoring the interest rate differential in the long run, however, the structural model no longer outperforms a random walk. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley _ Sons, Ltd.
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting .
Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 209-221
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:3:p:209-221Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
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Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Roger Bjørnstad and Eilev S. Jansen, 2007.
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501, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
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Pål Boug and Andreas Fagereng, 2007.
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Discussion Papers
522, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
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Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005.
"Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy ,"
Memorandum
31/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Hilde C. Bjørnland and Håvard Hungnes, 2005.
"The commodity currency puzzle ,"
Discussion Papers
423, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Hungnes, Håvard, 2005.
"The commodity currency puzzle ,"
Memorandum
32/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Hilde C Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2008.
"The Commodity Currency Puzzle ,"
Icfai University Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Icfai Press, vol. 0(2), pages 7-30, May.
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