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The Triple-Parity Law

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Author Info
Jean-Christian Lambelet (University of Lausanne)
Alexander Mihailov (University of Essex)

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Abstract

Scientists and epistemologists agree that a scientific law must be relatively simple and not contradicted by the available evidence. We propose and test one such law pertaining to international economics, the triple-parity law. It integrates three well-known equilibrium conditions, which are shown to prevail in the long run, on average and ex post: uncovered nominal interest rate parity (UIP); relative purchasing power parity (PPP); real interest rate parity (RIP). Using a cross-section of trend growth rates of relevant variables for 18 OECD countries in the post-Bretton-Woods/pre-EMU floating rate period (1976-1998) and employing a variety of single-equation and system estimation methods, we present robust evidence that the triple-parity law ultimately holds for large and diversified economies. For a few, mostly small and specialized countries, its working is however affected by some significant financial or real comparative (dis)advantages, for which estimates are provided. The law says nothing about short-term dynamics, yet measures of the speed of convergence to long-run equilibrium are computed. The triple-parity law, finally, illustrates another, rather fundamental point: if we look beyond short-term fluctuations and vagaries, economic laws do exist in the long run, just as economists used to think in the days of Marshall, Fisher, Walras and Pareto

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 33.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:33

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Keywords: nominal uncovered interest rate parity relative purchasing power parity real interest rate parity international arbitrage economic laws OECD countries

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
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  7. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 5. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Huizinga, Harry & Schaling, Eric & van der Windt, Peter C, 2007. "Capital Controls and Foreign Investor Subsidies Implicit in South Africa's Dual Exchange Rate System," CEPR Discussion Papers 6347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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