International Parity Relationships Between Germany and the United States: A Joint Modelling Approach
AbstractThis paper examines the interrelations between purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, the term structure of interest rates and the Fisher real interest rate parity using cointegration analysis. Dynamic adjustment and feed-back effects are estimated jointly in a full system of equations. An important finding is that the very slow, though significant, price adjustment towards sustainable levels of real exchange rates, has been compensated by corresponding changes in the spread of long-term bond rates. Related to this is the strong empirical support for the weak exogeneity of long-term bond rates, signifying the importance of the large US trade deficits (i.e. the low levels of US savings) and, hence, their linkage to international finance. Altogether, the results suggest that the transmission mechanisms over the post Bretton Woods period have been significantly different from standard theoretical assumptions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit in its series FRU Working Papers with number 2004/08.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
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PPP; UIP; Fisher parity; Term structure;
Other versions of this item:
- Katarina Juselius & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "International Parity Relationships between Germany and the United States: A Joint Modelling Approach," Discussion Papers 00-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
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