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International Parity Relationships Between Germany and the United States: A Joint Modelling Approach

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  • Katarina Juselius

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Ronald MacDonald

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

This paper examines the interrelations between purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, the term structure of interest rates and the Fisher real interest rate parity using cointegration analysis. Dynamic adjustment and feed-back effects are estimated jointly in a full system of equations. An important finding is that the very slow, though significant, price adjustment towards sustainable levels of real exchange rates, has been compensated by corresponding changes in the spread of long-term bond rates. Related to this is the strong empirical support for the weak exogeneity of long-term bond rates, signifying the importance of the large US trade deficits (i.e. the low levels of US savings) and, hence, their linkage to international finance. Altogether, the results suggest that the transmission mechanisms over the post Bretton Woods period have been significantly different from standard theoretical assumptions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit in its series FRU Working Papers with number 2004/08.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiefr:200408

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Keywords: PPP; UIP; Fisher parity; Term structure;

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Cited by:
  1. Bruggeman, Annick & Donnay, Marie, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0264, European Central Bank.
  2. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Hungnes, Håvard, 2003. "Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway," Memorandum 23/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  4. MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-111, February.
  5. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Hungnes, Håvard, 2005. "The commodity currency puzzle," Memorandum 32/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  6. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2011. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the equilibrium real exchange rate," Working Paper Series 1405, European Central Bank.
  7. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2003. "The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate," Discussion Papers 340, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  8. Maria Herrerias, 2010. "The causal relationship between equipment investment and infrastructures on economic growth in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 509-526, December.
  9. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  10. Luca Fanelli & Emanuele Bacchiocchi, 2005. "Testing the purchasing power parity through I(2) cointegration techniques," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 749-770.
  11. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Özcan & Aysit Tansel, 2002. "Macroeconomic instability, capital accumulation and growth: The case of Turkey 1963-1999," ERC Working Papers 0204, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2002.
  12. Keblowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2010. "Estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate: The CHEER approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1385-1397, November.
  13. McCauley, Joseph L., 2009. "ARCH and GARCH models vs. martingale volatility of finance market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 151-153, September.

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