This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Rebecca L Driver
Peter F Westaway

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper explains what is meant by the concept of equilibrium exchange rates. It argues that a variety of equilibrium exchange rates can be defined and their behaviour will vary according to different definitions of the exchange rate, and over short, medium and long-term horizons. It emphasises that the relevance of each type will depend on the question at hand. The behaviour of different measures of the equilibrium exchange rate is explained with reference to a range of theoretical models. The paper explicitly addresses the circumstances under which purchasing power parity, a commonly adopted benchmark for long-run exchange rate movements, is appropriate. The most important purpose of the paper is to provide a taxonomy of the different empirical measures of equilibrium exchange rates that have been derived in the literature. It offers a comprehensive guide to the bewildering array of related acronyms that has sprung up and explains the different contexts in which different equilibrium measures might prove informative.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/workingpapers/wp248.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 248.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:248

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Publications Group).

Related research
Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler & Gordon Menzies, 2005. "Australia's Medium-Run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 101-112, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Anne-Marie Brook & David Hargreaves, 2000. "A macroeconomic balance measure of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  4. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Currie, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Evaluating Blueprints for the Conduct of International Macro Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 264-69, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate : synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca L Driver, . "Current accounts, net foreign assets and the implications of cyclical factors," Bank of England working papers 173, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana Maria, 1997. "New panel unit root tests of PPP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 17-22, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Hamid Faruqee & Peter Isard, 1998. "Exchange Rate Assessment: Extension of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," IMF Occasional Papers 167, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Currie, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "An appraisal of alternative blueprints for international policy coordination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1769-1785, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to calculate equilibrium exchange rates : an overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  17. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Cheung, Y. -W. & Chinn, M. D., 1998. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 813-830, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Krugman, Paul, 2000. "How Complicated Does the Model Have to Be?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 33-42, Winter.
  23. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  24. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Jesus Gonzalo & Clive W.J. Granger, 1991. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 91-33, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Other versions:
  26. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," Working Papers 01.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  29. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Haskel, Jonathan & Wolf, Holger, 2001. " The Law of One Price--A Case Study," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 103(4), pages 545-58, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  32. Maurice Obstfeld, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1022, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  33. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  34. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Tamim Bayoumi & Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2000. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," NBER Working Papers 7524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  37. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  38. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Angel J. Ubide & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Susana Garcia Cervero, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates - Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  40. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  41. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, . "Equilibrium exchange rates and supply-side performance," Bank of England working papers 156, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  42. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  43. Devereux, Michael B, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Trends and Growth: A Model of East Asia," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 509-21, August.
  44. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  45. MacDonald, Ronald, 1996. "Panel unit root tests and real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 7-11, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  46. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  47. Bernd Schnatz & Chiara Osbat, 2003. "Productivity and the ('Synthetic') Euro-dollar exchange rate," Working Paper Series 225, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  48. Reuven Glick & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Endogenous Nontradability and Macroeconomic Implications," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 106, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  49. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  50. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 6017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  51. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  52. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-052, University of California at Berkeley.
    Other versions:
  53. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  54. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  55. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  56. Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs, 2001. "Tracking the Euro," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 298, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  57. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  58. Georgios E. Chortareas & Rebecca L. Driver, . "PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data," Bank of England working papers 138, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  59. Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch's Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years," IMF Working Papers 02/39, International Monetary Fund.
  60. Williamson, John, 1993. "Exchange Rate Management," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 188-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  61. Stephen Tokarick & Ian W. Marsh, 1994. "Competitiveness Indicators - A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment," IMF Working Papers 94/29, International Monetary Fund.
  62. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  63. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  64. Finn, Mary G., 1999. "An equilibrium theory of nominal and real exchange rate comovement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 453-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  65. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  66. Hansen, J. & Roeger, W., 2000. "Estimation of Real Equilibrium Exchange Rates," European Economy - Economic Papers 144, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  67. Noussair, Charles N. & Plott, Charles R. & Riezman, Raymond. G., 1995. "The Principles of Exchange Rate Determination in an International Finance Experiment," Working Papers 908, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  68. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  69. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the BEER - A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  70. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp781, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," Working Papers IES 75, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jerome Stein, 2004. "Optimal Debt and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Environment: an Overview," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Patrick A. Imam & Camelia Minoiu, 2008. "Mauritius: A Competitiveness Assessment," IMF Working Papers 08/212, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards The Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Frait, Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2008. "The Debt-adjusted Real Exchange Rate for China," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 850, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2004. "A model of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the New Zealand and Australian dollar," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  8. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ondřej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Working Papers IES 76, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Katerina Smidkova & Ales Bulir, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies," Macroeconomics 0408002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Reza Y. Siregar, 2007. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Working Papers id:1198, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  13. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Apart from a small start up grant in the 1990's, RePEc has received no funding and lives on the help of volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.