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Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: A Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen

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Author Info
MacDonald, Ronald
Marsh, Ian W

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Abstract

This paper presents a simultaneous model of exchange rates between the three major countries. In addition to incorporating long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics, the model is designed to capture complex interactions between currencies not normally considered in exchange rate models. These interactions are shown to be important via generalised impulse response analysis, and the model as a whole to be an economically and statistically superior forecasting tool over relatively short horizons.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2210.

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Date of creation: Aug 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2210

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange Rates; Forecasting; Impulse Response; PPP Exchange Rate Rules; Spillovers;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. Patel, Jayendu, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity as a Long-Run Relation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 367-79, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Carlos I. Medeiros & Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Cyclical Fluctuations in Brazil's Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Domestic and External Factors," IMF Working Papers 97/128, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fisher, P G, et al, 1990. "Econometric Evaluation of the Exchange Rate in Models of the UK Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1230-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. MacDonald, Ronald, 1993. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-84, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
    Other versions:
  16. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Melecky, M, 2007. "Currency Preferences in a Tri-Polar Model of Foreign Exchange," MPRA Paper 4186, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Melecky, Martin, 2007. "A structural investigation of third-currency shocks to bilateral exchange rates," MPRA Paper 5114, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Hungnes, Håvard, 2003. "Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway," Memorandum 23/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro," Working Paper Series 193, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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