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On the determinants of the inflation rate in Colombia: a disequilibrium market approach

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  • Jesus Otero

    ()

  • Manuel Ramirez

    ()

Abstract

We investigate the inflation rate in Colombia in terms of excess money, excess demand, deviations from PPP, and wage inflation. In contrast to previous results for a group of industrial economias, we find that domestic factors are a far more powerful influence on inflation than are external factors. We also find evidence of non-linear price behavior in response to excess demand and deviations from PPP; prices appear to respond symmetrically to excess money. The constitutional reform of 1991, which gave greater political independence to the Central Bank, also did influence inflation, both changing some parameters of the model and the adjustment patterns. ************************************************************************ Se investiga la tasa de inflación en términos del exceso de dinero, el exceso de demanda, de las desviaciones con respecto a la PPa y de la inflación salarial. A diferencia de los resultados encontrados para un grupo de países industrializados, encontramos que los factores domésticos tienen una influencia mucho mayor sobre la inflación que los factores externos. Tambien encontramos evidencia de comportamiento no lineal de los precios en respuesta a los excesos de demanda y a las desviaciones con respecto a la PPA; los precios responden simétricamente al exceso de dinero. La reforma constitucional de 1991 incrementó la independencia del Banco Central, tambien influenció la inflación, pero por medio de cambios en los parámetros y en los patrones de ajuste.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO in its series BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN with number 003296.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:col:000091:003296

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  7. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
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  10. Julio, Juan Manuel & Cobo, Adolfo, 2000. "The Relationship between Wages and Prices in Colombia," MPRA Paper 29069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jul 2000.
  11. Arrau, Patricio & De Gregorio, Jose & Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1991. "The demand for money in developing countries : assessing the role of financial innovation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 721, The World Bank.
  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
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  15. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  16. Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2001. "Nonlinear error correction models," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2001-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
  17. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  18. Martha Misas Arango & Hugo Oliveros Camacho, 1994. "La Relación Entre Salarios Y Precios En Colombia: Un Análisis Econométrico," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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Cited by:
  1. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Arroyo, José Santiago & Aponte, Elizabeth & Duque, Henry & Florez, Jaime, 2005. "Inflación y desempleo: ejercicio econométrico para Cali-Colombia
    [Inflation and Unemployment: econometric exercise for Cali-Colombia]
    ," MPRA Paper 15577, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2005.

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