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Asset Market and Balance of Payments Characteristics: An Eclectic Exchange Rate Model for the Dollar, Mark and Yen

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Author Info
Ronald Macdonald ()

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Abstract

In this paper we use an exchange rate model, which combines asset market characteristics with balance of payments interactions, to examine the nominal effective exchange rates of the German mark, Japanese yen and US dollar for the recent experience with floating exchange rates. Our approach may be interpreted as one which attempts to flesh out the missing links that arise in conditioning an exchange rate solely on relative prices, as occurs in a standard PPP analysis. Amongst the results reported in this paper are: significant, and sensible, long-run relationships for the currencies studied; complex short-run dynamics; a variance decomposition analysis which apportions nominal exchange rate error variances into real and nominal elements. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1008382709501
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 10 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 5-29
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:10:y:1999:i:1:p:5-29

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; purchasing power parity; cointegration;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ronald Mac Donald, 1998. "What do we really know about exchange rates?," Working Papers 28, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alan C. Stockman, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Variability under Pegged and Floating Nominal Exchange Rate Systems: An Equilibrium Theory," NBER Working Papers 2565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. MacDonald, Ronald, 1993. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Tamim Bayoumi & Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  10. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling - A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-84, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1992. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 92/34, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dionysios Chionis, 2002. "The Hysteretic Effects on the Real Exchange Rates," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 451-463, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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