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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

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  • Balázs �gert
  • László Halpern
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

In this paper, we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa-Samuelson effect, such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model, namely: differences in the theoretical underpinnings, differences in the econometric estimation techniques, and differences relating to the time-series and cross-sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three-dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2006.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 257-324

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:20:y:2006:i:2:p:257-324

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Cited by:
  1. Egert, Balazs, 2007. "Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June.
  2. Balázs Égert & Carol S. Leonard, 2006. "The Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan: An Empirical Investigation," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 85-108.
  3. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltán Schepp, 2007. "Kelet-közép európai devizaárfolyamok elõrejelzése határidõs árfolyamok segítségével," Working Papers 2007/3, University of Pécs, Department of Economics and Regional Studies, revised Oct 2007.
  4. Eric Ruscher & Guntram B. Wolff, 2009. "External rebalancing is not just an exporters' story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro," European Economy - Economic Papers 375, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Valentinyi, Ákos & Bihari, Péter, 2010. "Pirruszi dezinfláció vagy tartósan alacsony inflációs környezet?
    [Pyrrhic deflation or a persistently low-inflation environment?]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 868-875.
  6. Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Jirka Slacalek & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2007. "Price convergence in the enlarged internal market," European Economy - Economic Papers 292, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  7. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:138:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Roman Horváth & Kamila Koprnická, 2008. "Inflation Differentials in New EU Member States: Empirical Evidence," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 318-328, Oktober.
  9. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Y. Siregar, 2007. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Working Papers id:1198, eSocialSciences.
  10. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.
  11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:134:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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