Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Run-up to EMU Membership
AbstractThe real exchange rates of ceecs have been appreciating for the last decade, especially when measured by consumer prices. We argue that the size of this appreciation is linked to the exchange rate regime, the pegged currencies being more prone to this phenomenon in the long run. We also show that this appreciation is not necessarily linked to overvaluation. First, it is largely reduced when using a proxy of tradable prices as deflator, according to the Â¿Balassa-Samuelson effectÂ¿. Second, we use a large sample of emerging countries to calculate Â¿normalÂ¿ levels of real exchange rates taking into account the Â¿Balassa effectÂ¿ and show that ceecs do not suffer from systematic overvaluation according to this norm. We then calculate Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, using a model of the foreign trade of five ceecs (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia and Estonia) and their main partners based on nigem. We show that these ceec currencies only have very small misalignment. This is due to the fact that the response of their foreign trade to small changes in the exchange rate is especially high, because of the high degree of openness and large export price elasticities.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2002-15.
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Exchange rate; Exchange rate policy; Transition; International integration; Enlargement of the euro area; European monetary integration; CEECs;
Other versions of this item:
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for ceecs in the Run-up to emu Membership," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 983-1012.
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
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