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Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates

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  • Oliver Hossfeld

Abstract

We follow the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach by Clark and MacDonald (1998) to derive equilibrium real effective exchange rates and currency misalignments for the US and its 16 major trading partners. We apply cointegration and panel cointegration techniques to derive fully countryspecific measures of misalignment and measures based on panel estimates. We formally test the forecast performance of pooled vs. heterogeneous estimators over a hold-back period and find that pooling the data delivers more accurate forecasts in the vast majority of cases although the implicit long-run homogeneity restriction is statistically rejected. This is especially remarkable, since we have given the heterogeneous estimator an ’unfair’ advantage by choosing the country-specific model (of up to 21 possible ones) with the best out-of-sample performance prior to comparing it to two final panel specifications. Robustness of the results is supported by recently introduced cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root tests by Pesaran (2007) and bootstrapped error correction-based panel cointegration tests by Westerlund (2007), as well as different estimators. While we find strong evidence for the Balassa-Samuelson-effect, the evidence for other commonly hypothesized fundamentals is weak.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FIW in its series FIW Working Paper series with number 065.

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Length: 50
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:065

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Related research

Keywords: behavioral equilibrium exchange rate; real exchange rate misalignment; panel cointegration; CIPS test; cross-sectional dependence; exchange rate forecasts; exchange rate fundamentals;

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References

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  1. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Robust Estimations Of Equilibrium Exchange Rates Within The G20: A Panel Beer Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 608-633, November.
  2. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
  3. Martin Melecký & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 105-121, May.
  4. Simon Wren-Lewis & Rebecca Driver, 1998. "Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa54, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Priscila Fernandes Ribeiro, 2011. "Levado pelos Fundamentos? Estimando o Desalinhamento Cambial Norte-Americano a partir de Técnicas de Cointegração," Discussion Papers 1674, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  2. Fischer, Christoph & Hossfeld, Oliver, 2014. "A consistent set of multilateral productivity approach-based indicators of price competitiveness," Discussion Papers 10/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Fedoseeva Svetlana, 2013. "(A)symmetry, (Non)linearity and Hysteresis of Pricing-To-Market: Evidence from German Sugar Confectionery Exports," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, January.

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