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The Purchasing Power Parity Debate

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  • Alan M. Taylor
  • Mark Taylor

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

Originally propounded by the sixteenth-century scholars of the University of Salamanca, the conceptof purchasing power parity (PPP) was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debateconcerning the appropriate level at which to re-establish international exchange rate parities.Broadly accepted as a long-run equilibrium condition in the post-war period, it first was advocatedas a short-run equilibrium by many international economists in the first few years following thebreakdown of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s and then increasingly came under attackon both theoretical and empirical grounds from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s. Accordingly, overthe last three decades, a large literature has built up that examines how much the data deviated fromtheory, and the fruits of this research have provided a deeper understanding of how well PPP appliesin both the short run and the long run. Since the mid 1990s, larger datasets and nonlineareconometric methods, in particular, have improved estimation. As deviations narrowed between realexchange rates and PPP, so did the gap narrow between theory and data, and some degree ofconfidence in long-run PPP began to emerge again. In this respect, the idea of long-run PPP nowenjoys perhaps its strongest support in more than thirty years, a distinct reversion in economic thought.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 46.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:04-6

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Keywords: power; parity;

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References

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  1. Charles Engel, 1998. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0050, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2001. "Pricing-to-market, staggered contracts, and real exchange rate persistence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 333-359, August.
  4. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  5. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-30, August.
  6. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
  7. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," Trinity Economics Papers 200121, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  8. Menzie David Chinn, 1998. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 31, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
  10. Taylor, Mark P. & McMahon, Patrick C., 1988. "Long-run purchasing power parity in the 1920s," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 179-197, January.
  11. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  12. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-088, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997. "The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  16. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  17. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  18. repec:fth:calaec:18-90 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 1999. "Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 7408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  22. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September.
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  24. Edison, Hali J, 1987. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Test of the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate (1890-1978)," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 376-87, August.
  25. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  26. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  27. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "International real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity and the behaviour of real exchange rates: the resolution of a conundrum," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 15-23.
  28. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August.
  29. O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. ""The bigger they are, the harder they fall": Retail price differences across U.S. cities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 21-53, January.
  30. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  31. Benninga, Simon & Protopapadakis, Aris, 1988. "The equilibrium pricing of exchange rates and assets when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 129-149, June.
  32. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  33. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
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