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Exchange Rate Economics

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  • John Williamson

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Abstract

The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative “behavioral” model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development strategy is to permit a correct appraisal of the dangers of Dutch disease. Empirically it seems that from the standpoint of promoting development it is preferable to have a mildly undervalued rate. The paper concludes by examining implications for exchange rate regimes.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 123-146

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:123-146

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: Exchange rates; Behavioral model; Dutch disease; F31; F43; O24;

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References

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  1. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt124628cx, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. John Williamson, 2007. "Reference Rates and the International Monetary System," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa82, November.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2008. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 837-866, 08.
  8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  9. repec:nsr:niesrd:290 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Guy Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
  14. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  15. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
  16. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
  17. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  18. Williamson, J., 1991. "Advice on the Choice of an Exchange-Rate Policy," Papers 3, United Nations World Employment Programme-.
  19. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tsen, Wong Hock, 2011. "The real exchange rate determination: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 800-811, October.
  2. Robert A. Blecker & Arslan Razmi, 2009. "Export-led growth, real exchange rates and the fallacy of composition," Working Papers 2009-22, American University, Department of Economics.
  3. James Dzansi, 2013. "Do remittance inflows promote manufacturing growth?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 89-111, August.
  4. Michael Melvin & John Prins & Duncan Shand, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: An Investor Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4238, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Constantinos Alexiou & Joseph G. Nellis, 2013. "Challenging the Raison d’etre of Internal Devaluation in the Context of the Greek Economy," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 813-836, December.

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