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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models

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Author Info
Byung-Yeon Kim (University of Essex)
Iikka Korhonen (Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition)

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Abstract

We use a dynamic heterogeneous panel model to estimate real equilibrium exchange rates for advanced transition countries. Our method is based on out-of-sample estimations from middle-income and high-income countries, and we use a pooled mean group estimator. We find that exchange rates have converged in recent years in five transition countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) with real equilibrium exchange rates expressed in the US dollars. However, we also find that the currencies of the transition countries studied are substantially overvalued if real effective exchange rates are used.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0212014.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 31 Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0212014

Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on PC; pages: 29; figures: included
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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates transition economies dynamic heterogeneous panel estimations

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Price, Simon & Dimitrios Asteriou & Peter Lukacs & Nigel Pain, 2003. "Manufacturing price determination in OECD countries; markups, demand and uncertainty in a dynamic heterogeneous panel," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 168, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Real Exchange Rates in the Developing Countries: Concepts and Measure- ment," NBER Working Papers 2950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals - A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1997. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies - What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Working Papers 97/149, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
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  14. Dimitrios Asteriou & Simon Price, 2005. "Uncertainty, Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel," Review of Development Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 277-288, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Nadeem Ul Haque & Sunil Sharma & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions," IMF Working Papers 99/128, International Monetary Fund.
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