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Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?

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  • Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak
  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Abstract

This paper estimates equilibrium dollar wages for 15 transition economies. Equilibrium dollar wages are interpreted as full employment wages consistent with a country’s physical and human capital endowment, and estimated by regressing actual dollar wages on productivity and human capital proxies in a short (1990-95) panel of 85 countries. The main results are: (i) equilibrium dollar wages have appreciated steadily in the Baltic countries and fast-reforming Central and Eastern European (CEE) transition economies, but have been flat in most CIS countries; and (ii) 1996 actual dollar wages remain below estimated equilibrium dollar wages for most but not all transition countries covered.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1997. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Working Papers 1997/149, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies," Working Papers 97-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Rupinder & Laurila, Juhani, 1999. "Azerbaijan: Recent economic developments and policy issues in sustainability of growth," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/1999, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Francois Gurtner, 2002. "Currency Board and Debt Trap: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," CERT Discussion Papers 0204, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    3. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilateral equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Singh, Rupinder & Laurila, Juhani, 1999. "Azerbaijan : Recent economic developments and policy issues in sustainability of growth," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/1999, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies," Working Papers 97-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
    8. Virginie Coudert & Jean-Patrick Yanitch, 2001. "The Exchange Rate Strategies Adopted by the EU Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 345-360.
    9. Auty, Richard M, 1998. "Mineral wealth and the economic transition: Kazakstan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 241-249, December.
    10. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    11. Jörg Rahn, 2004. "Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," Macroeconomics 0401010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    13. Virginie Coudert & Jean-Patrick Yanitch, 2001. "Les stratégies de change des pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale candidats à l'Union européenne," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 381-397.
    14. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilateral equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    15. Kovács, Mihály András, 1999. "Reálárfolyam-mutatók és a magyar gazdaság ár- és költség-versenyképessége [Indicators of real exchange rates and the price and cost efficiency of the Hungarian economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 145-175.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:1999_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert & Camille Baulant, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1221-1236.
    18. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
    19. Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg & Mr. Tapio Saavalainen, 1998. "How to Deal with Azerbaijan’s Oil Boom? Policy Strategies in a Resource-Rich Transition Economy," IMF Working Papers 1998/006, International Monetary Fund.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_015 is not listed on IDEAS

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