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Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies

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Nouriel Roubini
Paul Wachtel

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Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the sustainability of current account deficits in transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe. These countries have experienced large current account imbalances in the transition to a market economy. We consider a wide range of macroeconomic factors that may indicate whether such imbalances are sustainable. We find that capital inflows and the choice of regimes of fixed exchange rates have led to a real exchange rate appreciation in many countries; this in turn has led to a significant loss of competitiveness and a worsening of the current account. In several countries there are a number of other indicators that point to a fragility of the external balance: weak banking and financial systems, large fiscal imbalances, low foreign reserves, increasing foreign debt and foreign debt-burden ratios. However, short-term portfolio investments (so-called hot money' inflows) are still relatively small in the transition economies examined, thus limiting the possibility of sudden speculative capital outflows.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6468.

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Date of creation: Mar 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6468

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F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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  1. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 5791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Buiter, Willem H, 1996. "Aspects of Fiscal Performance in some Transition Economies under Fund-supported Programs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Vaclav Klaus, 1997. "Promoting financial stability in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 183-192. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Nouriel Roubini, 1997. "Politically Motivated Fiscal Deficits: Policy Issues in Closed and Open Economies," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 27-54, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  9. Ratna Sahay & Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1995. "Capital Flows in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence and Policy Options," IMF Working Papers 95/57, International Monetary Fund.
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  1. Wachtel, Paul & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "Observations on disinflation in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bonin, John & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Financial sector development in transition economies: Lessons from the first decade," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Libor Krkoska, 2001. "Assessing Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Central Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 41-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Federico Marongiu, 2005. "Towards A New Set Of Leading Indicators Of Currency Crisis For Developing Countries: An Application To Argentina," Public Economics 0512011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Easterly, William, 1999. "How did highly indebted poor countries become highly indebted? : reviewing two decades of debt relief," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2225, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Igor MASTEN, 2002. "How Important Is the Shock-Absorbing Role of the Real Exchange Rate?," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/06, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Francois Gurtner, 2002. "Currency Board and Debt Trap: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," CERT Discussion Papers 0204, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Santanu Chatterjee & Georgios Sakoulis & Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Unilateral Capital Transfers, Public Investment, and Economic Growth," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1936, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Balázs Egert & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Wagner, Martin, 2002. "The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects," CEPR Discussion Papers 3318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Mark J. Holmes, 2004. "Current Account Deficits In The Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2004(4), pages 347-358. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Julius Horvath, 1999. "The May 1997 Currency Crisis in the Czech Republic," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 277-298, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ulrich Thießen, 2004. "Financial System Development, Regulation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Russia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 400, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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