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Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis

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Author Info
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett
Assaf Razin

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Abstract

We study determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account" imbalances (reversals) in low- and middle-income countries. We try to answer two questions:" first, what triggers reversals? Second, what factors explain how costly reversals are? We find" that both domestic variables, such as the current account balance, openness and the level of" reserves, and external variables, such as terms of trade shocks, US real interest rates and growth" in industrial countries seem to play an important role in explaining reversals in current account" imbalances. We also find some evidence that countries with a less appreciated real exchange" rate, higher investment and openness prior to the reversal tend to grow faster after a reversal" occurs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6310.

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Date of creation: Dec 1997
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Publication status: published as European Economic Review, Vol. 42, nos. 3-5 (May 1998): 897-908.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6310

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F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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