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Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis

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  • Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett
  • Assaf Razin

Abstract

We study determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account" imbalances (reversals) in low- and middle-income countries. We try to answer two questions:" first, what triggers reversals? Second, what factors explain how costly reversals are? We find" that both domestic variables, such as the current account balance, openness and the level of" reserves, and external variables, such as terms of trade shocks, US real interest rates and growth" in industrial countries seem to play an important role in explaining reversals in current account" imbalances. We also find some evidence that countries with a less appreciated real exchange" rate, higher investment and openness prior to the reversal tend to grow faster after a reversal" occurs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6310.

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Date of creation: Dec 1997
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Publication status: published as European Economic Review, Vol. 42, nos. 3-5 (May 1998): 897-908.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6310

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  1. Cashin, P., 1996. "Are Australia's Current Account deficits Excessive?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 533, The University of Melbourne.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  7. Assaf Razin & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 96/110, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 5791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1995. "Varieties of Capital-Market Crises," Research Department Publications 4008, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  10. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
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