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What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

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Author Info

  • Tuomas Komulainen

    (Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT)

  • )

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Johanna Lukkarila

    (University of Helsinki)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as private sector liabilities and the foreign liabilities of banks explain currency crises rather well, and it appears currency crises occur in tandem with banking crises. Indeed, in emerging market countries vulnerability to crisis is exacerbated by situations involving large liabilities that permit sudden capital outflows. Increases in indebtedness followed the liberalisation of capital flows and domestic financial sectors.

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    File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0304/0304010.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0304010.

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    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: 28 Apr 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0304010

    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk; pages: 30 ; figures: included
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    Web page: http://128.118.178.162

    Related research

    Keywords: currency crises; banking crises; emerging markets; liberalisation; probit model;

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    References

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    4. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
    11. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
    13. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
    14. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1999. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility," IMF Working Papers 99/147, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Aidi, Wafa, 2013. "Optima exchange crisis regression and twin crisis: Evidences for some MENA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-311.
    2. Herz, Bernhard & Bauer, Christian & Karb, Volker, 2006. "Are twin currency and debt crises special?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 11, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    3. Apoteker, Thierry & Barthelemy, Sylvain, 2005. "Predicting financial crises in emerging markets using a composite non-parametric model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 363-375, December.
    4. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
    5. Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2009. "The reversibility of different types of capital flows to emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 296-310, December.
    6. Anichul Khan & Hasnat Dewan, 2011. "Deposit insurance scheme and banking crises: a special focus on less-developed countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 155-182, August.
    7. Pierre-Richard Agenor, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108.
    8. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
    9. Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 0571, European Central Bank.
    10. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
    11. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    12. Mete Feridun, 2007. "Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation on Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2007_01, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jan 2007.
    13. Licchetta, Mirko, 2009. "Common determinants of currency crises: role of external balance sheet variables," Bank of England working papers 366, Bank of England.
    14. Aka, Brou E., 2006. "On the duration of the financial system stability under liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 147-161, June.
    15. Emil Panusheff, 2005. "The Regional Character of Financial Crises," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 49-69.
    16. Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jacome H., Luis I. & Saadi Sedik, Tahsin & Townsend, Simon, 2012. "Can emerging market central banks bail out banks? A cautionary tale from Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 424-448.
    18. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    19. Bleaney, Michael & Bougheas, Spiros & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2008. "A model of the interactions between banking crises and currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 695-706, September.
    20. Klomp, Jeroen, 2010. "Causes of banking crises revisited," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 72-87, March.

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