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Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach

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Demirguc, Asli
Detragiache, Enrica

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Abstract

This article explores how a multivariate logit model of the probability of a banking crisis can be used to monitor banking sector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily available data, and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in-sample statistics. The model has better in-sample performance than currently available alternatives, and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of decisionmakers regarding type I and type II errors. The framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 287-307
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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:287-307

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gavin, M. & Hausmann, R., 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," RES Working Papers 318, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gavin, M. & Hausmann, R., 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," RES Working Papers 318, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 147-216. [Downloadable!]
  10. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. María José Gil-Moltó & Joanna Poyago-Theotoky & Vasileios Zikos, 2006. "R&D policy and privatization in a mixed oligopoly," Discussion Paper Series 2006_25, Department of Economics, Loughborough University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lestano & Jan Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2004. "Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries," International Finance 0409001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Daniel Ottens & Edwin Lambregts & Steven Poelhekke, 2005. "Credit Booms in Emerging Market Economies: A Recipe for Banking Crises?," DNB Working Papers 046, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Komulainen, Tuomas & Lukkarila, Johanna, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christian A. Johnson, 2005. "Modelos de alerta temprana para pronosticar crisis bancarias: desde la extracción de señales a las redes neuronales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 20(1), pages 95-121, June. [Downloadable!]
  6. Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2001. "Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn from Financial Indicators," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP01-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chikako Oka, 2003. "Anticipating Arrears to the IMF: Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/18, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3719, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lenno Uusküla & Peeter Luikmel & Jana Kask, 2005. "Critical Levels of Debt?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
  11. Tuomas Komulainen & ) & Johanna Lukkarila, 2003. "What drives financial crises in emerging markets?," Macroeconomics 0304010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Axel Brüggemann & Thomas Linne, 2002. "Are the Central and Eastern European Transition Countries still vullnerable to an Financial Crisis? Results from the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 157, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christophe Godlewski, 2004. "Excess Credit Risk and Bank’s Default Risk An Application of Default Prediction’s Models to Banks from Emerging Market Economies," Finance 0409028, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sotiris K. Staikouras, 2004. "A chronicle of the banking and currency crises," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 873-878, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004. "Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach," International Finance 0409005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2006_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  17. Christian Broda & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Endogenous deposit dollarization," Staff Reports 160, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Brüggemann, Axel & Linne, Thomas, 2002. "Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  19. Malyutina Marina & Parilova Svetlana, 2003. "Bank failures in Russia: why do banks go bankrupt?," EERC Working Paper Series 00-073e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  20. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2000. "Inside the crisis : an empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2431, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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