Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison
AbstractThis paper examines episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of developed and developing countries, highlighting the experience of Japan. By a host of criteria, Japan appeared to be in a stronger position than most countries at the onset of banking problems low inflation, appreciating currency, balanced government budget, and large external surpluses. However, Japan followed a clear international boom-and-bust pattern in terms of real output growth, credit growth and stock price movements. We estimate a multivariate probit model that links the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics. The model predicts a high probability of banking sector distress in Japan in the early 1990s. In particular, the likelihood of an episode of banking distress rose in line with the sharp drop in asset prices, deepening recession and 'moral hazard' problem (financial liberalization combined with explicit deposit insurance). The Japanese case is also noteworthy by the long duration of the banking crisis, the length of the coincident recession and general malaise over the economy, the slow regulatory response, and the long delay in the commitment of public funds to re-capitalize the banking sector.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7253.
Date of creation: Jul 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Hutchison, Michael and Kathleen McDill. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience In International Comparison," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1999, v13(3,Sep), 155-180.
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Other versions of this item:
- Hutchison, Michael & McDill, Kathleen, 1999. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 155-180, September.
- Hutchison, M. & McDill, K., 1998. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," Papers, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf- 99-02, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
- Michael Hutchison & Kathleen McDill, 1999. "Are all banking crises alike? The Japanese experience in international comparison," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-08-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-1999-08-04 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-IFN-1999-08-04 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-1999-08-04 (Monetary Economics)
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