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Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are The Twins?

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  • Reuven GLICK

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Michael HUTCHISON

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz)

Abstract

The coincidence of having both banking and currency crises associated with the Asian financial crisis has drawn renewed attention to causal and common factors linking the two phenomena. In this paper, we analyse the incidence and underlying causes of banking and currency crises in 90 industrial and developing countries over the 1975-97 period. We measure the individual and joint ("twin") occurrence of bank and currency crises and assess the extent to which each type of crisis provides information about the likelihood of the other. We find that the twin crisis phenomenon is most common in financially liberalised emerging markets. The strong contemporaneous correlation between currency and bank crises in emerging markets is robust, even after factoring in a host of macroeconomic and financial structure variables and possible simultaneity bias. We also find that the occurrence of banking crises provides a good leading indicator of currency crises in emerging markets. The converse does not hold true, however, as currency crises are not a useful leading indicator of the onset of future banking crises. We conjecture that the openness of emerging markets to international capital flows, combined with a liberalised financial structure, make them particularly vulnerable to twin crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 012000.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:012000

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  1. Miller, Victoria, 1999. "The timing and size of bank-financed speculative attacks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 459-470.
  2. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
  3. Steven Riess Weisbrod & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1995. "Financial Fragilities in Latin America: The 1980s and 1990s," IMF Occasional Papers 132, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
  7. Miller, Victoria, 1996. "Speculative currency attacks with endogenously induced commercial bank crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 383-403, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert-Paul Berben & Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Requirements for successful currency regimes: the Dutch and Thai experiences," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-16, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  2. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2006. "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth," NBER Working Papers 12806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
  4. Eric Santor, 2007. "Contagion and the composition of Canadian banks' foreign asset portfolios: do financial crises matter?," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 32-52 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2012. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Regional Perspective," Discussion Paper 2012-015, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2000. "Inside the crisis : an empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2431, The World Bank.
  7. Simon H. Kwan, 2002. "Operating Performance of Banks among Asian Economies: An Internaitonal and Time Series Comparison," Working Papers 132002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Klomp, Jeroen, 2010. "Causes of banking crises revisited," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 72-87, March.
  9. Bertrand Candelon & Franz Palm, 2010. "Banking and Debt Crises in Europe: The Dangerous Liaisons?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 81-99, April.
  10. Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Insurance and liquidity : panel evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3648, The World Bank.

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