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Costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence

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Glenn Hoggarth
Ricardo Reis
Victoria Saporta

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Abstract

This paper assesses the cross-country 'stylised facts' on empirical measures of the losses incurred during periods of banking crises. Firstly, the direct resolution costs to the government are considered, and then the broader costs to the welfare of the economy (proxied by losses in GDP). The cumulative output losses incurred during crisis periods are found to be large, roughly 15%-20% of annual GDP, on average. In contrast to previous research, it is also found that output losses incurred during crises in developed countries are as high, or higher, on average, than those in emerging market economies. Moreover, output losses during crisis periods in developed countries also appear to be significantly larger - 10%-15% - than in neighbouring countries that did not at the time experience severe banking problems. In emerging market economies, by contrast, banking crises appear to be costly only when accompanied by a currency crisis. These results seem robust to allowing for macroeconomic conditions at the outset of crisis - in particular low and declining output growth - that have also contributed to future output losses during episodes.

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Stephen Millard & Ander Perez, . "Financial innovation, macroeconomic stability and systemic crises," Bank of England working papers 340, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Phong T. H. Ngo, 2006. "International Prudential Regulation, Regulatory Risk and the Cost of Bank Capital," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-463, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Martin Cihák, 2006. "How Do Central Banks Write on Financial Stability?," IMF Working Papers 06/163, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ralf Elsas, 2004. "Preemptive Distress Resolution through Bank Mergers," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 139, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Martín Vallcorba & Javier Delgado, 2007. "Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo," Banco de España Working Papers 0722, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  19. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth," MPRA Paper 5101, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Cole, Rebel & Moshirian, Fari & Wu, Qionbing, 2007. "Bank stock returns and economic growth," MPRA Paper 4714, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Kilponen , Juha & Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The lending channel under optimal choice of monetary policy," Research Discussion Papers 33/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  22. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2008. "The day-to-day interbank market, volatility, and central bank intervention in a developing economy," MPRA Paper 15648, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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